Stock Analysis

Mandarin Oriental International (SGX:M04 investor five-year losses grow to 14% as the stock sheds US$63m this past week

SGX:M04
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Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Mandarin Oriental International Limited (SGX:M04), since the last five years saw the share price fall 18%.

Since Mandarin Oriental International has shed US$63m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

Check out our latest analysis for Mandarin Oriental International

Given that Mandarin Oriental International didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one would hope for good top-line growth to make up for the lack of earnings.

Over half a decade Mandarin Oriental International reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 3.0% for each year. That's not what investors generally want to see. The share price decline at a rate of 3% per year is disappointing. Unfortunately, though, it makes sense given the lack of either profits or revenue growth. Without profits, its hard to see how shareholders win if the revenue keeps falling.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SGX:M04 Earnings and Revenue Growth April 11th 2024

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Mandarin Oriental International's TSR for the last 5 years was -14%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 0.05% in the twelve months, Mandarin Oriental International shareholders did even worse, losing 9.3% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 3% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Mandarin Oriental International better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Mandarin Oriental International (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Singaporean exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.