HMS Networks AB (publ)

OM:HMS Stock Report

Market Cap: SEK 18.6b

HMS Networks Valuation

Is HMS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HMS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HMS (SEK374.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK555.78)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HMS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HMS?

Key metric: As HMS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HMS. This is calculated by dividing HMS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HMS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio54.4x
EarningsSEK 345.65m
Market CapSEK 18.64b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HMS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HMS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average37.8x
NETI B Net Insight
27.6x22.5%SEK 2.3b
LUMEN LumenRadio
55xn/aSEK 1.3b
MAVEN Maven Wireless Sweden
30.9x31.8%SEK 563.2m
NCAB NCAB Group
37.8x24.8%SEK 10.5b
HMS HMS Networks
54.4x42.5%SEK 18.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HMS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (54.4x) compared to the peer average (37.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HMS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Communications Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HMS 54.4xIndustry Avg. 32.2xNo. of Companies7PE020406080100+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HMS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (54.4x) compared to the Global Communications industry average (32.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HMS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HMS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio54.4x
Fair PE Ratio45.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HMS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (54.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (45.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HMS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentSEK 374.80
SEK 457.50
+22.1%
12.6%SEK 515.00SEK 400.00n/a2
Nov ’25SEK 391.40
SEK 457.50
+16.9%
12.6%SEK 515.00SEK 400.00n/a2
Aug ’25SEK 406.00
SEK 512.50
+26.2%
3.4%SEK 530.00SEK 495.00n/a2
Jul ’25SEK 426.20
SEK 515.00
+20.8%
3.9%SEK 535.00SEK 495.00n/a2
Jun ’25SEK 454.20
SEK 517.50
+13.9%
4.3%SEK 540.00SEK 495.00n/a2
May ’25SEK 413.60
SEK 517.50
+25.1%
4.3%SEK 540.00SEK 495.00n/a2
Apr ’25SEK 463.60
SEK 472.50
+1.9%
4.8%SEK 495.00SEK 450.00n/a2
Mar ’25SEK 465.80
SEK 472.50
+1.4%
4.8%SEK 495.00SEK 450.00n/a2
Feb ’25SEK 469.00
SEK 472.50
+0.7%
4.8%SEK 495.00SEK 450.00n/a2
Jan ’25SEK 497.40
SEK 425.00
-14.6%
7.1%SEK 455.00SEK 395.00n/a2
Dec ’24SEK 429.60
SEK 425.00
-1.1%
7.1%SEK 455.00SEK 395.00n/a2
Nov ’24SEK 366.20
SEK 450.00
+22.9%
9.6%SEK 500.00SEK 395.00SEK 391.403
Oct ’24SEK 400.00
SEK 476.67
+19.2%
3.9%SEK 500.00SEK 455.00SEK 395.203
Sep ’24SEK 435.40
SEK 485.00
+11.4%
4.4%SEK 500.00SEK 455.00SEK 435.003
Aug ’24SEK 427.80
SEK 485.00
+13.4%
4.4%SEK 500.00SEK 455.00SEK 406.003
Jul ’24SEK 528.00
SEK 492.00
-6.8%
5.3%SEK 515.00SEK 448.00SEK 426.204
Jun ’24SEK 499.40
SEK 471.67
-5.6%
4.3%SEK 500.00SEK 455.00SEK 454.203
May ’24SEK 476.40
SEK 471.67
-1.0%
4.3%SEK 500.00SEK 455.00SEK 413.603
Apr ’24SEK 423.40
SEK 426.67
+0.8%
12.5%SEK 500.00SEK 375.00SEK 463.603
Mar ’24SEK 419.00
SEK 426.67
+1.8%
12.5%SEK 500.00SEK 375.00SEK 465.803
Feb ’24SEK 406.00
SEK 426.67
+5.1%
12.5%SEK 500.00SEK 375.00SEK 469.003
Jan ’24SEK 339.60
SEK 398.33
+17.3%
18.9%SEK 500.00SEK 320.00SEK 497.403
Dec ’23SEK 324.40
SEK 376.67
+16.1%
23.2%SEK 500.00SEK 310.00SEK 429.603
Nov ’23SEK 284.20
SEK 376.67
+32.5%
23.2%SEK 500.00SEK 310.00SEK 366.203

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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