Pagero Group AB (publ)'s (STO:PAGERO) 28% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

The Pagero Group AB (publ) (STO:PAGERO) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 28%. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 59%.

After such a large jump in price, when almost half of the companies in Sweden's Software industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2.1x, you may consider Pagero Group as a stock probably not worth researching with its 3.8x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

See our latest analysis for Pagero Group

How Has Pagero Group Performed Recently?

With revenue growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Pagero Group has been doing relatively well. The P/S is probably high because investors think this strong revenue performance will continue. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Pagero Group will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For Pagero Group?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as Pagero Group's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 33% last year. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 107% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have definitely welcomed those medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 17% each year during the coming three years according to the dual analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 18% per annum, which is not materially different.

In light of this, it's curious that Pagero Group's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Pagero Group shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Seeing as its revenues are forecast to grow in line with the wider industry, it would appear that Pagero Group currently trades on a higher than expected P/S. When we see revenue growth that just matches the industry, we don't expect elevates P/S figures to remain inflated for the long-term. A positive change is needed in order to justify the current price-to-sales ratio.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for Pagero Group that you should be aware of.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.