Comintelli AB (publ)'s (NGM:COMINT) Stock On An Uptrend: Could Fundamentals Be Driving The Momentum?

Most readers would already be aware that Comintelli's (NGM:COMINT) stock increased significantly by 40% over the past three months. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. In this article, we decided to focus on Comintelli's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

Check out our latest analysis for Comintelli

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Comintelli is:

40% = kr4.3m ÷ kr11m (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every SEK1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated SEK0.40 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Comintelli's Earnings Growth And 40% ROE

First thing first, we like that Comintelli has an impressive ROE. Second, a comparison with the average ROE reported by the industry of 21% also doesn't go unnoticed by us. Needless to say, we are quite surprised to see that Comintelli's net income shrunk at a rate of 28% over the past five years. Based on this, we feel that there might be other reasons which haven't been discussed so far in this article that could be hampering the company's growth. For example, it could be that the company has a high payout ratio or the business has allocated capital poorly, for instance.

However, when we compared Comintelli's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 26% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about Comintelli's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Comintelli Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Because Comintelli doesn't pay any regular dividends, we infer that it is retaining all of its profits, which is rather perplexing when you consider the fact that there is no earnings growth to show for it. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Conclusion

In total, it does look like Comintelli has some positive aspects to its business. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. While we won't completely dismiss the company, what we would do, is try to ascertain how risky the business is to make a more informed decision around the company. Our risks dashboard would have the 3 risks we have identified for Comintelli.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.