Earnings Miss: Catena AB (publ) Missed EPS By 10.0% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Catena AB (publ) (STO:CATE) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.6% to kr508 in the past week. Revenues of kr546m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at kr4.07, missing estimates by 10.0%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Catena after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Catena

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Catena's three analysts is for revenues of kr2.75b in 2025. This would reflect a sizeable 37% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 16% to kr19.59 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr2.79b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr18.64 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target was unchanged at kr581, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Catena analyst has a price target of kr640 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr460. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Catena's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 29% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 12% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.1% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Catena to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Catena's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr581, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Catena going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Catena (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.