Orexo Valuation

Is ORX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ORX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ORX's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ORX's fair value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ORX?

Key metric: As ORX is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for ORX. This is calculated by dividing ORX's market cap by their current revenue.
What is ORX's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	1.1x
Sales	SEK 595.70m
Market Cap	SEK 681.13m

ORX key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	15.4x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does ORX's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for ORX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	21.3x
ENZY Enzymatica	7.3x	43.9%	SEK 340.9m
CLBIO Corline Biomedical	9.7x	46.0%	SEK 207.6m
ERMA Enorama Pharma	15.5x	n/a	SEK 206.8m
MOB Moberg Pharma	52.9x	105.0%	SEK 451.5m
ORX Orexo	1.1x	7.3%	SEK 681.1m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: ORX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the peer average (21.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does ORX's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the SE Pharmaceuticals Industry?

12 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	15.6x	30.0%
ORX Orexo	1.1x	7.3%	US$62.06m
KARO Karo Pharma	4.8x	n/a	US$1.59b
SECARE Swedencare	3x	12.9%	US$697.08m

12 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	15.6x	75.5%
ORX Orexo	1.1x	47.0%	US$62.06m

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: ORX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the Swedish Pharmaceuticals industry average (15.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ORX's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ORX PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	1.1x
Fair PS Ratio	2.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: ORX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ORX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	SEK 19.60	SEK 19.75 +0.8%	6.3%	SEK 21.00	SEK 18.50	n/a	2
Jan ’26	SEK 17.50	SEK 19.75 +12.9%	6.3%	SEK 21.00	SEK 18.50	n/a	2
Jan ’25	SEK 15.46	SEK 25.50 +64.9%	29.4%	SEK 33.00	SEK 18.00	SEK 17.50	2
Dec ’24	SEK 14.90	SEK 25.50 +71.1%	29.4%	SEK 33.00	SEK 18.00	SEK 12.88	2
Nov ’24	SEK 16.50	SEK 25.50 +54.5%	29.4%	SEK 33.00	SEK 18.00	SEK 11.00	2
Oct ’24	SEK 16.20	SEK 25.50 +57.4%	29.4%	SEK 33.00	SEK 18.00	SEK 13.90	2
Sep ’24	SEK 17.80	SEK 25.50 +43.3%	29.4%	SEK 33.00	SEK 18.00	SEK 15.30	2
Aug ’24	SEK 17.54	SEK 25.50 +45.4%	29.4%	SEK 33.00	SEK 18.00	SEK 15.48	2
Jul ’24	SEK 10.40	SEK 31.00 +198.1%	37.2%	SEK 46.00	SEK 18.00	SEK 21.40	3
Jun ’24	SEK 10.20	SEK 31.00 +203.9%	37.2%	SEK 46.00	SEK 18.00	SEK 20.00	3
May ’24	SEK 11.32	SEK 35.83 +216.5%	35.3%	SEK 46.00	SEK 18.00	SEK 16.90	3
Apr ’24	SEK 15.28	SEK 35.83 +134.5%	35.3%	SEK 46.00	SEK 18.00	SEK 15.58	3
Mar ’24	SEK 16.36	SEK 35.83 +119.0%	35.3%	SEK 46.00	SEK 18.00	SEK 16.50	3
Feb ’24	SEK 17.28	SEK 36.50 +111.2%	32.1%	SEK 46.00	SEK 20.00	SEK 15.02	3
Jan ’24	SEK 18.86	SEK 37.67 +99.7%	33.2%	SEK 47.00	SEK 20.00	SEK 15.46	3

Analyst Price Target

Consensus Narrative from 2 Analysts

SEK 19.75

Fair Value

0.8% undervalued

Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/01/22 20:41
End of Day Share Price	2025/01/22 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Orexo AB (publ) is covered by 12 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Sten Gustafsson	ABG Sundal Collier
Klas Palin	Carnegie Commissioned Research
Kristofer Liljeberg-Svensson	Carnegie Investment Bank AB