How Earnings Growth Amid Weaker Sales and Share Buybacks at Holmen (OM:HOLM B) Has Changed Its Investment Story

• Holmen AB reported third quarter 2025 earnings, with net income rising to SEK 944 million and earnings per share increasing to SEK 6.1, both up from the previous year, even as sales declined to SEK 5,327 million.
• The company also completed its buyback program announced in May 2023, repurchasing 8,697,649 shares, or 5.48% of its outstanding shares, by September 30, 2025, at a total cost of SEK 3.51 billion.
• We will assess how Holmen's higher profitability amid lower sales and the completed buyback program influence its investment outlook.

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Holmen Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Holmen, you need to have conviction in the company’s ability to navigate cyclical headwinds in wood products and paper, and faith in management’s operational efficiency and disciplined capital return. The latest results illustrate higher profitability even as sales dip, but this does not noticeably shift the near-term catalyst of recovering demand, nor does it materially reduce the key risk of input cost inflation, which can still pressure margins if elevated.

Among Holmen’s recent announcements, the completion of its SEK 3.51 billion share buyback, covering 5.48% of outstanding shares, stands out. While returning capital can benefit shareholders by supporting earnings per share, it does not address the persistent risk of higher sawlog and wood costs, which have already caused production cutbacks and continue to weigh on future earnings potential if inflation persists. The contrast between resilient earnings and the ongoing risk from escalating input costs is something investors should be aware of, especially when...

Read the full narrative on Holmen (it's free!)

Holmen's narrative projects SEK24.3 billion revenue and SEK3.2 billion earnings by 2028. This requires a -0.9% yearly revenue decline and a SEK0.5 billion increase in earnings from SEK2.7 billion today.

Uncover how Holmen's forecasts yield a SEK384.44 fair value, a 7% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members estimate Holmen’s fair value between SEK 330 and SEK 384.44 with two competing perspectives. Many participants keep a close eye on input cost inflation, knowing these pressures can affect earnings and valuation outcomes across the market.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Holmen - why the stock might be worth as much as 7% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Holmen Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Holmen research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Holmen research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Holmen's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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