Holmen AB (publ) Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, Holmen AB (publ) (STO:HOLM B) last week released its latest second-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Holmen missed earnings this time around, with kr5.6b revenue coming in 9.7% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of kr3.80 also fell short of expectations by 13%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Holmen after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, Holmen's eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be kr23.4b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be kr17.76, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr24.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr18.75 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

Check out our latest analysis for Holmen

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of kr405, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Holmen's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Holmen at kr476 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr360. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.8% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 7.5% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.1% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Holmen is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Holmen. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Holmen going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Holmen that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.