When Should You Buy Bergs Timber AB (publ) (STO:BRG B)?

While Bergs Timber AB (publ) (STO:BRG B) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the OM over the last few months. As a small cap stock, hardly covered by any analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Bergs Timber’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for Bergs Timber

What is Bergs Timber worth?

The stock is currently trading at kr44.54 on the share market, which means it is overvalued by 20% compared to my intrinsic value of SEK37.04. This means that the opportunity to buy Bergs Timber at a good price has disappeared! If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Given that Bergs Timber’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What kind of growth will Bergs Timber generate?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Bergs Timber, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? If you believe BRG B is currently trading above its value, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. Given the risk from a negative growth outlook, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on BRG B for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. Its price has risen beyond its true value, on top of a negative future outlook. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management. Should the price fall in the future, will you be well-informed enough to buy?

With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, we've found that Bergs Timber has 3 warning signs (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.

If you are no longer interested in Bergs Timber, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.