Earnings Miss: Elekta AB (publ) Missed EPS By 5.4% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Elekta AB (publ) (STO:EKTA B) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.9% to kr60.30 in the past week. Revenues of kr4.7b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at kr0.89, missing estimates by 5.4%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Elekta

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Elekta from 13 analysts is for revenues of kr19.6b in 2026. If met, it would imply a decent 9.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 60% to kr4.35. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr19.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr4.69 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at kr70.86, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Elekta analyst has a price target of kr127 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr51.50. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Elekta's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 7.7% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.3% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Elekta is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Elekta. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Elekta's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Elekta analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Elekta that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.