A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of SyntheticMR AB (publ) (NGM:SYNT)

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of SyntheticMR AB (publ) (NGM:SYNT) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for SyntheticMR

What's the estimated valuation?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Levered FCF (SEK, Millions)	kr26.1m	kr44.7m	kr55.7m	kr67.6m	kr80.5m	kr89.6m	kr96.8m	kr102.3m	kr106.5m	kr109.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 11.32%	Est @ 8.03%	Est @ 5.72%	Est @ 4.1%	Est @ 2.97%
Present Value (SEK, Millions) Discounted @ 4.1%	kr25.1	kr41.3	kr49.4	kr57.6	kr65.9	kr70.5	kr73.1	kr74.3	kr74.3	kr73.5

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = kr604m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 4.1%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₁ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = kr110m× (1 + 0.3%) ÷ (4.1%– 0.3%) = kr2.9b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= kr2.9b÷ ( 1 + 4.1%)¹⁰= kr2.0b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is kr2.6b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of kr53.8, the company appears about fair value at a 15% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at SyntheticMR as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 4.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.858. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For SyntheticMR, we've put together three further elements you should consider:

1. Risks: As an example, we've found 1 warning sign for SyntheticMR that you need to consider before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does SYNT's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Swedish stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.