QleanAir AB (publ) Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that QleanAir AB (publ) (STO:QAIR) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.0% to kr30.55 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at kr504m, although statutory earnings per share came in 11% below what the analysts expected, at kr2.92 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for QleanAir

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from QleanAir's two analysts is for revenues of kr515.0m in 2024. This reflects a modest 2.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 21% to kr3.52. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr534.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of kr3.84 in 2024. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 17% to kr45.00.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that QleanAir's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 2.3% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.2% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 5.3% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, QleanAir is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of QleanAir's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have analyst estimates for QleanAir going out as far as 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - QleanAir has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.