Earnings Miss: Bravida Holding AB (publ) Missed EPS By 23% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

The third-quarter results for Bravida Holding AB (publ) (STO:BRAV) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of kr6.6b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 23% to hit kr0.96 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Bravida Holding

Following the latest results, Bravida Holding's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr30.8b in 2025. This would be an okay 3.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 34% to kr6.86. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr31.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr6.93 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The consensus price target rose 8.1% to kr98.00despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Bravida Holding's earnings by assigning a price premium. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Bravida Holding analyst has a price target of kr112 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr87.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Bravida Holding is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Bravida Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 9.4% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Bravida Holding is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Bravida Holding. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Bravida Holding going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Bravida Holding that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.