VBG Group AB (publ) Just Missed EPS By 16%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a pretty great week for VBG Group AB (publ) (STO:VBG B) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to kr363 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. It was not a great result overall. Although revenues beat expectations, hitting kr1.4b, statutory earnings missed analyst forecasts by 16%, coming in at just kr3.87 per share. Following the result, the analyst has updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analyst latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from VBG Group's sole analyst is for revenues of kr5.89b in 2026. This would reflect a decent 9.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 33% to kr22.60. Before this earnings report, the analyst had been forecasting revenues of kr5.84b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr23.13 in 2026. The analyst seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for VBG Group

Althoughthe analyst has revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 6.3% to kr425, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that VBG Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.9% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that VBG Group is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analyst reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for VBG Group. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analyst believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for VBG Group going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for VBG Group you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.