Recent Insider Transactions • Oct 23
Independent Director recently sold kr1.8m worth of stock On the 18th of October, Claes Akesson sold around 8k shares on-market at roughly kr230 per share. This transaction amounted to 100% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. This was the largest sale by an insider in the last 3 months. Insiders have been net sellers, collectively disposing of kr3.3m more than they bought in the last 12 months. Announcement • Oct 23
Concentric AB (publ)(OM:COIC) dropped from OMX Nordic All-Share Index Concentric AB has been droppred from the OMX Nordic All-Share Index . Announcement • Oct 01
Concentric AB Announces Resignation of Roger Ingemey as Senior Vice President of the Hydraulics Division Concentric AB announced that Dr. Roger Ingemey will, effective immediately, be leaving his position as Senior Vice President of the Hydraulics division. His responsibilities will be assumed on an interim basis by existing members of the Senior Leadership team. Announcement • Sep 19
Concentric AB (publ) (OM:COIC) agreed to acquire G.O. Engineering Gesellschaft Zur Entwicklung Von Hard- Und Software Mbh for an enterprise value at approximately SEK 270 million. Concentric AB (publ) (OM:COIC) agreed to acquire G.O. Engineering Gesellschaft Zur Entwicklung Von Hard- Und Software Mbh for an enterprise value at approximately SEK 270 million on September 18, 2024. This is subject to any closing conditions being met. Concentric will finance the Acquisition using cash reserves and existing debt facilities. Helmut Gerstner and Ralf Wörner, the current owners of GO Engineering, will remain involved in the business to ensure a smooth transition, with Gerstner providing support for a three-month period, while Wörner will contribute to the company's operations on an ongoing basis. With the acquisition, Concentric AB will welcome more than 120 GO Engineering employees to the Concentric Group. For the period ending June 30, 2024, G.O. Engineering Gesellschaft Zur Entwicklung Von Hard- Und Software Mbh reported total revenue of SEK 332 million and EBITDA of SEK 27 million. The expected completion of the transaction is October 1, 2024. New Risk • Aug 29
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Swedish stocks, typically moving 18% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (18% average weekly change). Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.2% net profit margin). Announcement • Aug 29
A.P. Møller Holding A/S proposed to acquire Concentric AB (publ) (OM:COIC) from Forsta AP-fonden and Cliens Kapitalförvaltning AB and others for SEK 8.6 billion. A.P. Møller Holding A/S proposed to acquire Concentric AB (publ) (OM:COIC) from Forsta AP-fonden and Cliens Kapitalförvaltning AB and others for SEK 8.6 billion on August 29, 2024. A cash consideration of SEK 8.59 billion valued at SEK 230 per share will be paid by A.P. Møller Holding A/S. As part of consideration, SEK 8.59 billion is paid towards common equity of Concentric AB (publ). The consideration payable in respect of the Offer is financed in full by funds available to the Offeror by way of an equity commitment letter issued by APMH Invest A/S. The Company's shareholders Första AP-fonden and Cliens Kapitalförvaltning AB, controlling 16.7 per cent of the outstanding shares and votes in Concentric, have entered into undertakings to accept the offer. Completion of the Offer is conditional upon, among other things, the Offer being accepted to such extent that A.P. Møller Holding becomes the owner of more than 90% of the shares in Concentric AB, as well as the receipt of all regulatory, governmental or similar clearances, approvals and decisions and other actions that are necessary for the Offer and Circle. If the Offeror, whether in connection with the Offer or otherwise, acquires shares representing more than 90% of the total number of outstanding shares in Concentric, the Offeror intends to commence compulsory redemption proceedings under the Swedish Companies Act. The deal has been unanimously approved by the Concentric AB board.
The acceptance period of the Offer is expected to commence on or around September 23, 2024, and expire on or around November 1, 2024, subject to any extensions. Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB acted as financial advisor, Advokatfirman Lindahl KB acted as legal advisor, Ernst & Young Corporate Finance AB acted as fairness opinion provider to Concentric AB. Citigroup Global Markets Europe AG, Danske Bank A/S, Danmark,Sverige Filial acted as financial advisors to A.P. Møller Holding A/S. White & Case LLP acted as legal advisor to A.P. Møller Holding A/S. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 07
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from kr3.95b to kr3.78b. EPS estimate also fell from kr8.66 per share to kr7.33 per share. Net income forecast to grow 22% next year vs 20% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Sweden. Consensus price target of kr248 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 9.8% to kr149 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 02
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: kr0.24 (down from kr3.16 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: kr955.0m (down 13% from 2Q 2023). Net income: kr9.00m (down 93% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 0.9% (down from 11% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 66%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.5% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Sweden. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 5% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 17
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 21% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from kr10.90 to kr8.66 per share. Revenue forecast steady at kr3.95b. Net income forecast to grow 10% next year vs 18% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Sweden. Consensus price target of kr275 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 4.9% to kr179 over the past week. Announcement • May 09
Concentric AB (publ) Provides Sales Guidance for the Second Quarter of 2024 Concentric AB (publ) provided sales guidance for the second quarter of 2024. The company expects net sales in the second quarter of 2024 to be broadly similar to the net sales achieved in the first quarter of 2024. Reported Earnings • May 08
First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: kr2.69 (vs kr3.19 in 1Q 2023) First quarter 2024 results: EPS: kr2.69 (down from kr3.19 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: kr1.00b (down 11% from 1Q 2023). Net income: kr100.0m (down 17% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 10.0% (in line with 1Q 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 1.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Sweden. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 15% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 12
Upcoming dividend of kr4.25 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 19 April 2024. Payment date: 25 April 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 39% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.2%. Lower than top quartile of Swedish dividend payers (4.3%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.8%). Reported Earnings • Mar 28
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: kr11.01 (down from kr13.20 in FY 2022). Revenue: kr4.21b (up 3.7% from FY 2022). Net income: kr417.0m (down 17% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 9.9% (down from 12% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 4.3%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 3.2% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Sweden. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 23% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Feb 15
Concentric AB (Publ) Announces Retirement of Susanna Schneeberger as Board Member Concentric AB (publ) announced that the current board member Susanna Schneeberger has informed the nomination committee that she declines re-election. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 14
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from kr4.11b to kr3.84b. EPS estimate also fell from kr12.60 per share to kr10.90 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 1.9% next year vs 9.2% growth forecast for Machinery industry in Sweden . Consensus price target of kr183 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 2.4% to kr164 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Feb 09
Dividend increased to kr4.25 Dividend of kr4.25 is 6.3% higher than last year. Ex-date: 19th April 2024 Payment date: 25th April 2024 Dividend yield will be 2.6%, which is lower than the industry average of 3.1%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (39% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (30% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 13% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 28% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Feb 08
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: kr11.01 (down from kr13.20 in FY 2022). Revenue: kr4.21b (up 3.7% from FY 2022). Net income: kr417.0m (down 17% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 9.9% (down from 12% in FY 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 4.3%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 2.7% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Sweden. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 23% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Jan 10
Concentric AB Appoints Dr. Roger Ingemey as Senior Vice President Hydraulics Division, Effective on February 1, 2024 Concentric AB has appointed Dr. Roger Ingemey as Senior Vice President Hydraulics Division. The appointment of Roger from 1 February 2024 will be pivotal in executing the Group strategic plan, to deliver profitable growth in the hydraulics division aligned to electrification strategy, and driving productivity improvements through the Concentric Business Excellence program. Roger holds a PhD in Physical Chemistry from the University of Duisburg-Essen. Reported Earnings • Nov 09
Third quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: kr2.35 (vs kr3.32 in 3Q 2022) Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: kr2.35 (down from kr3.32 in 3Q 2022). Revenue: kr1.04b (down 3.1% from 3Q 2022). Net income: kr89.0m (down 29% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 8.6% (down from 12% in 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 2.7% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Sweden. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 30% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Price Target Changed • Oct 25
Price target decreased by 9.8% to kr203 Down from kr225, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 37% above last closing price of kr148. Stock is down 22% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of kr12.70 for next year compared to kr13.20 last year. Announcement • Oct 11
Concentric AB (Publ) Announces Appointment of Nomination Committee The AGM 2019 has resolved that Concentric's Nomination Committee shall have five members which consist of the Chairman of the Board and one representative of each of the four shareholders. The members of the Nomination Committee shall, in accordance with the resolution of the AGM 2019, be appointed based on the ownership structure as of 31st of August 2023. The members are: Monica Åsmyr, Swedbank Robur Fonder, Chairman of the Nomination Committee Maria Rengefors, Nordea Fonder, Anette Dahlberg, Första AP-fonden, Carl Sundblad, Cliens Fonder, the Nomination Committee also includes the Chairman of the Board, Anders Nielsen. Buying Opportunity • Jun 14
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 12%. The fair value is estimated to be kr277, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 38% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 32%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 5.5% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 14% in the next 2 years. Buying Opportunity • May 24
Now 22% undervalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days. The fair value is estimated to be kr281, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 38% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 32%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 5.5% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 14% in the next 2 years. Announcement • May 04
Concentric AB (Publ) Provides Sales Guidance for the Year 2023 Concentric AB (publ) provided sales guidance for the year 2023. The company currently estimate sales in the second quarter of 2023 to be similar to the sales performance achieved during the first quarter of 2023. Reported Earnings • May 03
First quarter 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2023 results: EPS: kr3.19 (down from kr3.43 in 1Q 2022). Revenue: kr1.13b (up 21% from 1Q 2022). Net income: kr121.0m (down 6.9% from 1Q 2022). Profit margin: 11% (down from 14% in 1Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 13%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 9.4%. Revenue is forecast to grow 1.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.1% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Sweden. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 32% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 26% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 12
Upcoming dividend of kr4.00 per share at 1.9% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 19 April 2023. Payment date: 25 April 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 30% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.9%. Lower than top quartile of Swedish dividend payers (4.9%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.0%). Reported Earnings • Mar 27
Full year 2022 earnings: Revenues in line with analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: Revenue: kr4.06b (up 92% from FY 2021). Net income: kr501.0m (up 48% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 12% (down from 16% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.5% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Sweden. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 15
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to kr190, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14x. Average forward P/E is 20x in the Machinery industry in Sweden. Total returns to shareholders of 156% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Feb 10
Price target increased by 10.0% to kr232 Up from kr211, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of kr222. Stock is down 13% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of kr13.30 for next year compared to kr8.92 last year. Reported Earnings • Feb 09
Full year 2022 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations Full year 2022 results: EPS: kr13.20 (up from kr8.92 in FY 2021). Revenue: kr4.06b (up 92% from FY 2021). Net income: kr501.0m (up 48% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 12% (down from 16% in FY 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) were also in line with analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.3% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Sweden. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 27% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 11% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to kr220 Down from kr285, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 17% above last closing price of kr188. Stock is down 35% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of kr13.50 for next year compared to kr8.92 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 04
Third quarter 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: kr3.32 (up from kr2.40 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: kr1.07b (up 107% from 3Q 2021). Net income: kr126.0m (up 39% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 12% (down from 18% in 3Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 8.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 2.1%. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 3.0% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in Sweden. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 18% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Oct 20
Price target decreased to kr220 Down from kr300, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 26% above last closing price of kr174. Stock is down 13% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of kr13.51 for next year compared to kr8.92 last year. Reported Earnings • Jul 27
Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2022 results: EPS: kr3.53 (up from kr2.24 in 2Q 2021). Revenue: kr1.02b (up 116% from 2Q 2021). Net income: kr134.0m (up 58% from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 13% (down from 18% in 2Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 9.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 5.7%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 18%, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the industry in Sweden. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 6% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 21% per year, which means it is tracking significantly ahead of earnings growth. Recent Insider Transactions Derivative • May 21
Chief Financial Officer exercised options to buy kr979k worth of stock. On the 13th of May, Marcus Whitehouse exercised options to buy 5k shares at a strike price of around kr143, costing a total of kr684k. This transaction amounted to 47% of their direct individual holding at the time of the trade. Since June 2021, Marcus' direct individual holding has decreased from 10.18k shares to 6.19k. Company insiders have collectively bought kr8.3m more than they sold, via options and on-market transactions, in the last 12 months. Recent Insider Transactions • May 12
Independent Director recently bought kr197k worth of stock On the 5th of May, Joachim Rosenberg bought around 1k shares on-market at roughly kr197 per share. In the last 3 months, there was an even bigger purchase from another insider worth kr245k. Insiders have collectively bought kr855k more in shares than they have sold in the last 12 months. Reported Earnings • May 05
First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2022 results: EPS: kr3.43 (up from kr1.90 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: kr934.0m (up 116% from 1Q 2021). Net income: kr130.0m (up 81% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 14% (down from 17% in 1Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 15%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 20%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 29%, compared to a 16% growth forecast for the industry in Sweden. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 5% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 9% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 15
Upcoming dividend of kr3.75 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 22 April 2022. Payment date: 28 April 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 42% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 1.9%. Lower than top quartile of Swedish dividend payers (4.7%). Lower than average of industry peers (2.4%).