Alligo AB (publ) Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Alligo AB (publ) (STO:ALLIGO B) missed earnings with its latest third-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at kr2.2b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 48%, coming in at just kr1.20 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Alligo after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Alligo

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Alligo's two analysts is for revenues of kr10.0b in 2025. This would reflect an okay 7.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 60% to kr11.35. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr10.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr12.40 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

The consensus price target fell 5.6% to kr168, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Alligo's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 8.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Alligo is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Alligo that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.