Stock Analysis

Here's Why Alfa Laval (STO:ALFA) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

OM:ALFA
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Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Alfa Laval AB (publ) (STO:ALFA) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Alfa Laval

What Is Alfa Laval's Net Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Alfa Laval had kr9.40b of debt in December 2020, down from kr12.2b, one year before. On the flip side, it has kr7.76b in cash leading to net debt of about kr1.64b.

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OM:ALFA Debt to Equity History April 19th 2021

A Look At Alfa Laval's Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Alfa Laval had liabilities of kr17.4b due within 12 months and liabilities of kr14.3b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of kr7.76b as well as receivables valued at kr9.66b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total kr14.4b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Since publicly traded Alfa Laval shares are worth a very impressive total of kr118.1b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. Carrying virtually no net debt, Alfa Laval has a very light debt load indeed.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Alfa Laval has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 0.21. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 29.2 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. On the other hand, Alfa Laval saw its EBIT drop by 9.0% in the last twelve months. If earnings continue to decline at that rate the company may have increasing difficulty managing its debt load. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Alfa Laval can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Alfa Laval recorded free cash flow worth 73% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

Happily, Alfa Laval's impressive interest cover implies it has the upper hand on its debt. But, on a more sombre note, we are a little concerned by its EBIT growth rate. When we consider the range of factors above, it looks like Alfa Laval is pretty sensible with its use of debt. While that brings some risk, it can also enhance returns for shareholders. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Alfa Laval that you should be aware of before investing here.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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