Stock Analysis

Investors in Nordea Bank Abp (STO:NDA SE) have seen strong returns of 108% over the past five years

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OM:NDA SE

The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. Better yet, you'd like to see the share price move up more than the market average. But Nordea Bank Abp (STO:NDA SE) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 50% over five years, which is below the market return. However, if you include the dividends then the return is market beating. Zooming in, the stock is up a respectable 8.4% in the last year.

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

See our latest analysis for Nordea Bank Abp

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over half a decade, Nordea Bank Abp managed to grow its earnings per share at 13% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 8% over the same period. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 7.81.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

OM:NDA SE Earnings Per Share Growth March 19th 2024

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Nordea Bank Abp's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Nordea Bank Abp, it has a TSR of 108% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Nordea Bank Abp provided a TSR of 18% over the year (including dividends). That's fairly close to the broader market return. That gain looks pretty satisfying, and it is even better than the five-year TSR of 16% per year. It is possible that management foresight will bring growth well into the future, even if the share price slows down. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Nordea Bank Abp (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Nordea Bank Abp is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Swedish exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Nordea Bank Abp might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.