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National Agricultural Development's (TADAWUL:6010) 26% CAGR outpaced the company's earnings growth over the same five-year period
Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And while active stock picking involves risks (and requires diversification) it can also provide excess returns. For example, the The National Agricultural Development Company (TADAWUL:6010) share price is up 52% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 13% (ignoring dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 78% in the last year, including dividends.
After a strong gain in the past week, it's worth seeing if longer term returns have been driven by improving fundamentals.
Check out our latest analysis for National Agricultural Development
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During five years of share price growth, National Agricultural Development achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 109% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 9% average annual increase in the share price. So it seems the market isn't so enthusiastic about the stock these days.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that National Agricultural Development has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We've already covered National Agricultural Development's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Its history of dividend payouts mean that National Agricultural Development's TSR of 219% over the last 5 years is better than the share price return.
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that National Agricultural Development shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 78% over the last year. That's better than the annualised return of 26% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with National Agricultural Development .
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Saudi exchanges.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if National Agricultural Development might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SASE:6010
National Agricultural Development
Engages in production of agricultural and livestock products in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and internationally.
Flawless balance sheet and undervalued.