An Intrinsic Calculation For Public Joint-Stock Company Federal Hydro-Generating Company - RusHydro (MCX:HYDR) Suggests It's 47% Undervalued

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Public Joint-Stock Company Federal Hydro-Generating Company - RusHydro (MCX:HYDR) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Federal Hydro-Generating Company - RusHydro

Crunching the numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Levered FCF (RUB, Millions)	₽27.3b	₽30.5b	₽36.5b	₽43.8b	₽50.0b	₽55.4b	₽60.8b	₽66.3b	₽71.9b	₽77.9b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 10.75%	Est @ 9.76%	Est @ 9.06%	Est @ 8.58%	Est @ 8.23%
Present Value (RUB, Millions) Discounted @ 13%	₽24.2k	₽24.0k	₽25.3k	₽26.9k	₽27.2k	₽26.7k	₽26.0k	₽25.1k	₽24.1k	₽23.1k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₽253b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (7.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 13%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₀ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₽78b× (1 + 7.4%) ÷ (13%– 7.4%) = ₽1.5t

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₽1.5t÷ ( 1 + 13%)¹⁰= ₽453b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₽705b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₽0.9, the company appears quite good value at a 47% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Federal Hydro-Generating Company - RusHydro as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Federal Hydro-Generating Company - RusHydro, we've put together three further elements you should explore:

1. Risks: As an example, we've found 3 warning signs for Federal Hydro-Generating Company - RusHydro that you need to consider before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does HYDR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Russian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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