PJSC LSR Group (MISX:LSRG) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of LSRG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

LSRG (RUB585) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (RUB344.63)

LSRG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	3/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	3/6

LSRG Stock Overview

PJSC LSR Group, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the real estate development, homebuilding, and construction materials businesses.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (3.6x) is below the Russian market (7.2x)

Earnings have grown 1.1% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 18.4% per year for the next 3 years

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

High level of non-cash earnings

Dividend of 10.09% is not well covered by earnings

PJSC LSR Group Competitors

INGRAD

MISX:INGR

₽54.4b

Samolet Group

MISX:SMLT

₽165.6b

World Trade Center Moscow

MISX:WTCM

₽7.2b

K. Wah International Holdings

SEHK:173

HK$8.9b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for PJSC LSR Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	₽585.00
52 Week High	₽808.80
52 Week Low	₽402.00
Beta	0.64
1 Month Change	17.23%
3 Month Change	31.40%
1 Year Change	-24.10%
3 Year Change	-25.21%
5 Year Change	-28.66%
Change since IPO	-23.46%

Shareholder Returns

	LSRG	RU Real Estate	RU Market
7D	17.0%	0.2%	-0.2%
1Y	-24.1%	-26.6%	-24.6%

Return vs Industry: LSRG exceeded the Russian Real Estate industry which returned -26.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: LSRG matched the Russian Market which returned -24.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is LSRG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
LSRG volatility
LSRG Average Weekly Movement	7.4%
Real Estate Industry Average Movement	4.9%
Market Average Movement	7.6%
10% most volatile stocks in RU Market	13.3%
10% least volatile stocks in RU Market	4.8%

Stable Share Price: LSRG is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Russian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: LSRG's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1993	n/a	Andrey Molchanov	https://www.lsrgroup.ru

PJSC LSR Group, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the real estate development, homebuilding, and construction materials businesses. The company operates through Building Materials, Real Estate Development and Construction, and Other segments. It produces and sells bricks, concrete and reinforced concrete items, ready-mix concrete and mortars, aerated concrete blocks, crushed stone products, crushed granite, and land-based and marine-dredged sand extraction products; and provides tower cranes services.

PJSC LSR Group Fundamentals Summary

How do PJSC LSR Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
LSRG fundamental statistics
Market Cap	₽58.62b
Earnings (TTM)	₽16.27b
Revenue (TTM)	₽130.52b

3.6x

P/E Ratio

0.4x

P/S Ratio

Is LSRG overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
LSRG income statement (TTM)
Revenue	₽130.52b
Cost of Revenue	₽77.76b
Gross Profit	₽52.75b
Other Expenses	₽36.49b
Earnings	₽16.27b

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	162.33
Gross Margin	40.42%
Net Profit Margin	12.46%
Debt/Equity Ratio	182.0%

How did LSRG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

10.1%

Current Dividend Yield

11%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is LSRG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LSRG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for LSRG. This is calculated by dividing LSRG's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is LSRG's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	₽58.62b

LSRG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5x
PEG Ratio	-0.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LSRG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

LSRG PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for LSRG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	16.9x
INGR INGRAD	31.6x	n/a	₽54.4b
SMLT Samolet Group	25.4x	n/a	₽165.6b
WTCM World Trade Center Moscow	8.1x	n/a	₽7.2b
173 K. Wah International Holdings	2.6x	-38.6%	HK$8.9b
LSRG PJSC LSR Group	3.6x	-18.4%	₽58.6b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LSRG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.6x) compared to the peer average (16.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LSRG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Real Estate Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LSRG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.6x) compared to the European Real Estate industry average (8.2x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LSRG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LSRG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	3.6x
Fair PE Ratio	5.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: LSRG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LSRG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LSRG (RUB585) is trading above our estimate of fair value (RUB344.63)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LSRG is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: LSRG's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is PJSC LSR Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-18.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: LSRG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-18.4% per year).

Earnings vs Market: LSRG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-18.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: LSRG's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: LSRG's revenue (0.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Russian market (2.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: LSRG's revenue (0.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: LSRG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.5%).

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Past Performance

How has PJSC LSR Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

3/6

Past Performance Score 3/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

1.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: LSRG has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: LSRG's current net profit margins (12.5%) are higher than last year (10.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: LSRG's earnings have grown by 1.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: LSRG's earnings growth over the past year (35.3%) exceeds its 5-year average (1.1% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: LSRG earnings growth over the past year (35.3%) underperformed the Real Estate industry 55.4%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: LSRG's Return on Equity (17.5%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is PJSC LSR Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: LSRG's short term assets (RUB313.3B) exceed its short term liabilities (RUB107.2B).

Long Term Liabilities: LSRG's short term assets (RUB313.3B) exceed its long term liabilities (RUB148.6B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: LSRG's net debt to equity ratio (115.9%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: LSRG's debt to equity ratio has increased from 81.4% to 182% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: LSRG's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: LSRG's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (4.1x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is PJSC LSR Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

10.08%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: LSRG's dividend (10.09%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Russian market (4.1%).

High Dividend: LSRG's dividend (10.09%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Russian market (11.28%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: LSRG's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: LSRG's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (11.4%), LSRG's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: LSRG is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

8.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Andrey Molchanov (50 yo)

3yrs

Tenure

Mr. Andrey Molchanov served as Chairman of Board of Directors at PJSC LSR Group since August 2018 until June 28, 2019 and serves as its Chief Executive Officer since June 28, 2019 and has been its Director...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: LSRG's management team is seasoned and experienced (8.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: LSRG's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 0.5 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31