Group of Companies Segezha (MISX:SGZH) - Share price, News & Analysis

SGZH fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	2/6

SGZH Stock Overview

Segezha Group PJSC operates in the forestry industry in Russia and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 0.5% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 9.41% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 5.9% per year for the next 3 years

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

High level of non-cash earnings

Dividend of 4.69% is not well covered by earnings

Group of Companies Segezha Competitors

UPM-Kymmene Oyj

HLSE:UPM

€17.4b

Stora Enso Oyj

HLSE:STERV

€14.4b

Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget

OM:SCA B

kr125.4b

WestRock

NYSE:WRK

US$11.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Group of Companies Segezha
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	₽8.95
52 Week High	₽11.48
52 Week Low	₽6.05
Beta	0
1 Month Change	2.10%
3 Month Change	4.12%
1 Year Change	12.35%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	12.37%

Shareholder Returns

	SGZH	RU Forestry	RU Market
7D	-1.1%	-1.1%	-4.0%
1Y	12.3%	9.7%	-25.1%

Return vs Industry: SGZH exceeded the Russian Forestry industry which returned 7.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: SGZH exceeded the Russian Market which returned -22.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is SGZH's price volatile compared to industry and market?
SGZH volatility
SGZH Average Weekly Movement	5.5%
Forestry Industry Average Movement	5.9%
Market Average Movement	9.9%
10% most volatile stocks in RU Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in RU Market	5.8%

Stable Share Price: SGZH is less volatile than 75% of Russian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: SGZH's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2013	n/a	Mikhail Shamolin	https://segezha-group.com

Segezha Group PJSC operates in the forestry industry in Russia and internationally. It operates through four segments: Paper and Packaging, Forestry Management and Woodworking, Plywood and Boards, and Other. The Paper and Packaging segment produces sack paper and artificial parchment from unbleached craft pulp, as well as industrial and consumer packaging in the form of paper sacks, such as paper pouches and retailer bags for use in construction, food, agriculture, chemical, and mineral markets.

Group of Companies Segezha Fundamentals Summary

How do Group of Companies Segezha's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
SGZH fundamental statistics
Market Cap	₽140.49b
Earnings (TTM)	₽15.27b
Revenue (TTM)	₽92.44b

9.2x

P/E Ratio

1.5x

P/S Ratio

Is SGZH overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
SGZH income statement (TTM)
Revenue	₽92.44b
Cost of Revenue	₽53.71b
Gross Profit	₽38.73b
Other Expenses	₽23.46b
Earnings	₽15.27b

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.97
Gross Margin	41.90%
Net Profit Margin	16.52%
Debt/Equity Ratio	161.7%

How did SGZH perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.7%

Current Dividend Yield

40%

Payout Ratio

Valuation

Is Group of Companies Segezha undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

0.5%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: SGZH (RUB8.95) is trading below our estimate of fair value (RUB9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SGZH is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: SGZH is good value based on its PE Ratio (9.2x) compared to the European Forestry industry average (10.8x).

PE vs Market: SGZH is poor value based on its PE Ratio (9.2x) compared to the Russian market (6.8x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: SGZH's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: SGZH is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (3x) compared to the XE Forestry industry average (1.5x).

Future Growth

How is Group of Companies Segezha forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-5.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SGZH's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-5.9% per year).

Earnings vs Market: SGZH's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-5.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SGZH's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SGZH's revenue (9.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Russian market (4.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SGZH's revenue (9.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SGZH's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (21.6%)

Past Performance

How has Group of Companies Segezha performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

41.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: SGZH has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: SGZH became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: SGZH's earnings have grown significantly by 41.3% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: SGZH has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: SGZH has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Forestry industry (85.9%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst SGZH's Return on Equity (32.99%) is high, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.

Financial Health

How is Group of Companies Segezha's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: SGZH's short term assets (RUB56.3B) do not cover its short term liabilities (RUB73.2B).

Long Term Liabilities: SGZH's short term assets (RUB56.3B) do not cover its long term liabilities (RUB89.9B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: SGZH's net debt to equity ratio (134.4%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: SGZH's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 175.9% to 161.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: SGZH's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (17.5%).

Interest Coverage: SGZH's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (6.7x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Group of Companies Segezha current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

4.69%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: SGZH's dividend (4.69%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Russian market (3.8%).

High Dividend: SGZH's dividend (4.69%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Russian market (11.02%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Too early to tell whether SGZH's dividend payments have been stable as they only just started paying a dividend.

Growing Dividend: Too early to tell if SGZH's dividend payments are increasing as they only just started paying a dividend.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (39.7%), SGZH's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: SGZH is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.4yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Mikhail Shamolin (51 yo)

1.42yrs

Tenure

Mr. Mikhail Valeryevich Shamolin is the Member of the Management Board, Chief Executive Officer and President at Segezha Group PJSC and has been its Executive Director since December 28, 2020 and Chairman...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: SGZH's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.4 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: SGZH's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.4 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/23 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/23 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31