Petropavlovsk (MISX:POGR) - Share price, News & Analysis

POGR fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	0/6

POGR Stock Overview

Petropavlovsk PLC operates as a gold mining company in the Far East of Russia.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (3.4x) is below the Russian market (6.8x)

Earnings are forecast to grow 12.47% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old

+ 1 more risk

Petropavlovsk Competitors

Buryatzoloto

MISX:BRZL

₽5.6b

Seligdar

MISX:SELG

₽39.8b

Izhstal PAO

MISX:IGST

₽2.3b

Solikamsk magnesium works

MISX:MGNZ

₽4.2b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Petropavlovsk
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€3.42
52 Week High	€24.94
52 Week Low	€2.90
Beta	1.18
1 Month Change	2.55%
3 Month Change	-57.96%
1 Year Change	-84.95%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-88.00%

Shareholder Returns

	POGR	RU Metals and Mining	RU Market
7D	0%	0%	0%
1Y	-84.9%	-36.5%	-32.3%

Return vs Industry: POGR underperformed the Russian Metals and Mining industry which returned -34.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: POGR underperformed the Russian Market which returned -30.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is POGR's price volatile compared to industry and market?
POGR volatility
POGR Average Weekly Movement	11.6%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement	4.7%
Market Average Movement	5.0%
10% most volatile stocks in RU Market	8.1%
10% least volatile stocks in RU Market	3.0%

Stable Share Price: POGR is more volatile than 90% of Russian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 12% a week.

Volatility Over Time: POGR's weekly volatility (12%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of Russian stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1994	8,860	Denis Alexandrov	https://petropavlovskplc.com

Petropavlovsk PLC operates as a gold mining company in the Far East of Russia. It principally holds interests in the Pioneer, Albyn, and Malomir mining assets, as well as holds various gold licenses located in Amur region. The company also produces silver deposits.

Petropavlovsk Fundamentals Summary

How do Petropavlovsk's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
POGR fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$48.40m
Earnings (TTM)	US$22.84m
Revenue (TTM)	US$817.75m

3.4x

P/E Ratio

0.1x

P/S Ratio

Is POGR overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
POGR income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$817.75m
Cost of Revenue	US$277.11m
Gross Profit	US$540.64m
Other Expenses	US$517.79m
Earnings	US$22.84m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Sep 07, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.0058
Gross Margin	66.11%
Net Profit Margin	2.79%
Debt/Equity Ratio	79.3%

How did POGR perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is POGR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for POGR?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for POGR. This is calculated by dividing POGR's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is POGR's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$48.40m

POGR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	1.8x
PEG Ratio	0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does POGR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

POGR PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for POGR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	5.1x
BRZL Buryatzoloto	2x	n/a	₽5.6b
SELG Seligdar	3.9x	n/a	₽39.8b
IGST Izhstal PAO	0.9x	n/a	₽2.3b
MGNZ Solikamsk magnesium works	13.5x	n/a	₽4.2b
POGR Petropavlovsk	3.4x	12.5%	₽47.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: POGR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.4x) compared to the peer average (5.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does POGR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: POGR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.4x) compared to the Russian Metals and Mining industry average (3.9x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is POGR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

POGR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	3.4x
Fair PE Ratio	6.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: POGR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of POGR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate POGR's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate POGR's fair value for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Future Growth

How is Petropavlovsk forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

12.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: POGR's forecast earnings growth (12.5% per year) is above the savings rate (7.5%).

Earnings vs Market: POGR's earnings (12.5% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Russian market (0.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: POGR's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: POGR's revenue (3.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Russian market (3.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: POGR's revenue (3.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: POGR's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (22.4%)

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Past Performance

How has Petropavlovsk performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-14.7%

Last years revenue growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: POGR has a large one-off loss of $63.2M impacting its June 30 2021 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: POGR became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: POGR has become profitable over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: POGR has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: POGR has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Metals and Mining industry (243.6%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: POGR's Return on Equity (3%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Petropavlovsk's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: POGR's short term assets ($433.9M) exceed its short term liabilities ($232.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: POGR's short term assets ($433.9M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($821.8M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: POGR's net debt to equity ratio (74.3%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: POGR's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 119.7% to 79.3% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: POGR's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (12.1%).

Interest Coverage: POGR's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (1.1x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Petropavlovsk current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate POGR's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate POGR's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if POGR's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if POGR's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as POGR has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.6yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Denis Alexandrov (48 yo)

1.58yrs

Tenure

US$1,340,702

Compensation

Mr. Denis Alexandrov serves as Independent Director at Public Joint Stock Company Mining and Metallurgical Company Norilsk Nickel since 2022. He serves as Group Chief Executive Officer at Petropavlovsk PLC...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Insufficient data to establish whether Denis's total compensation is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in the Russian market.

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Denis's compensation with company performance.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: POGR's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: POGR's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.7 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/22 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/08 00:00
Earnings	2021/06/30
Annual Earnings	2020/12/31