Public Joint Stock Company Polyus Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Investors in Public Joint Stock Company Polyus (MCX:PLZL) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.6% to close at ₽14,264 following the release of its full-year results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$5.0b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 15% to hit US$11.85 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Polyus

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Polyus' eleven analysts is for revenues of US$6.52b in 2021, which would reflect a major 31% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 113% to US$25.35. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.56b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$21.58 in 2021. There has definitely been an improvement in perception after these results, with the analysts noticeably increasing both their earnings and revenue estimates.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$273, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Polyus analyst has a price target of US$26,490 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$16,218. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Polyus' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 31% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 14%p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.9% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Polyus to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Polyus' earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Polyus going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Polyus that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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