Broker Revenue Forecasts For Public Joint-Stock Company PhosAgro (MCX:PHOR) Are Surging Higher

Celebrations may be in order for Public Joint-Stock Company PhosAgro (MCX:PHOR) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant upgrade to their statutory estimates for the company. The revenue forecast for this year has experienced a facelift, with analysts now much more optimistic on its sales pipeline. Investor sentiment seems to be improving too, with the share price up 4.3% to ₽4,510 over the past 7 days. Could this big upgrade push the stock even higher?

After the upgrade, the nine analysts covering PhosAgro are now predicting revenues of ₽338b in 2021. If met, this would reflect a huge 33% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 301% to ₽524. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₽302b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₽485 in 2021. The most recent forecasts are noticeably more optimistic, with a solid increase in revenue estimates and a lift to earnings per share as well.

See our latest analysis for PhosAgro

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for PhosAgro 15% to US$55.06 on the back of these upgrades. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PhosAgro at US$4,388 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$3,097. We would probably assign less value to the forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be possible to derive much meaning from the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting PhosAgro's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 47% annualised growth to the end of 2021 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.7% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that PhosAgro is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, with improved earnings power expected for this year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for this year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. There was also an increase in the price target, suggesting that there is more optimism baked into the forecasts than there was previously. Seeing the dramatic upgrade to this year's forecasts, it might be time to take another look at PhosAgro.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for PhosAgro going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the PhosAgro Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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