Stock Analysis

Did You Participate In Any Of Irkut's (MCX:IRKT) Fantastic 234% Return ?

MISX:IRKT
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While Irkut Corporation (MCX:IRKT) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 22% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that shareholders have received really good returns over the last five years. In fact, the share price is 176% higher today. So while it's never fun to see a share price fall, it's important to look at a longer time horizon. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's cheap now. While the long term returns are impressive, we do have some sympathy for those who bought more recently, given the 28% drop, in the last year.

Check out our latest analysis for Irkut

Given that Irkut didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

Over the last half decade Irkut's revenue has actually been trending down at about 11% per year. On the other hand, the share price done the opposite, gaining 23%, compound, each year. It's a good reminder that expectations about the future, not the past history, always impact share prices. Still, we are a bit cautious in this kind of situation.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
MISX:IRKT Earnings and Revenue Growth January 11th 2021

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Irkut's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Irkut's TSR of 234% for the 5 years exceeded its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

Irkut shareholders are down 28% for the year, but the market itself is up 5.1%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 27% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Irkut is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those make us uncomfortable...

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on RU exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About MISX:IRKT

Irkut

Irkut Corporation researches, designs, tests, manufactures, sells, and markets military and civil aircraft for Russian and foreign governments, and aviation and leasing companies.

Questionable track record with weak fundamentals.