AVANGARD Joint Stock BANK’s (MCX:AVAN) profitability and risk are largely affected by the underlying economic growth for the region it operates in RU given it is a small-cap stock with a market capitalisation of RUруб40.27b. Since banks make money by reinvesting its customers’ deposits in the form of loans, strong economic growth will drive the level of savings deposits and demand for loans, directly impacting the cash flows of those banks. After the GFC, a set of reforms called Basel III was imposed in order to strengthen regulation, supervision and risk management in the banking sector. The Basel III reforms are aimed at banking regulations to improve financial institutions’ ability to absorb shocks caused by economic stress which could expose banks like AVANGARD BANK to vulnerabilities. Its financial position may weaken in an adverse macro event such as political instability which is why it is crucial to understand how well the bank manages its risks. Low levels of leverage coupled with sufficient liquidity may place AVANGARD BANK in a safe position in the face of adverse headwinds. We can measure this risk exposure by analysing three metrics for leverage and liquidity which I will take you through today.
Is AVAN’s Leverage Level Appropriate?Banks with low leverage are better positioned to weather adverse headwinds as they have less debt to pay off. A bank’s leverage may be thought of as the level of assets it owns compared to its own shareholders’ equity. Though banks are required to have a certain level of buffer to meet its capital requirements, AVANGARD BANK’s leverage level of 5.55x is very safe and substantially below the maximum limit of 20x. With assets 5.55 times equity, the banks has maintained a prudent level of its own fund relative to borrowed fund which places it in a strong position to pay back its debt in times of adverse events. If the bank needs to firm up its capital cushion, it has ample headroom to increase its debt level without deteriorating its financial position.
How Should We Measure AVAN’s Liquidity?As abovementioned, loans are quite illiquid so it is important to understand how much of these loans make up the bank’s total assets. Normally, they should not exceed 70% of total assets, although this should not be a worry for AVANGARD BANK due to its significantly lower ratio of below 30%. This means less than a third of the bank’s total assets are tied up in the form of illiquid loans, leading to extremely high liquidity, imaginably at the expense of generating interest income.
Does AVAN Have Liquidity Mismatch?AVAN profits by lending out its customers’ deposits as loans and charge an interest on the principle. These loans may be fixed term and often cannot be readily realized, however, customer deposits are liabilities which must be repaid on-demand and in short notice. The discrepancy between loan assets and deposit liabilities threatens the bank’s financial position. If an adverse event occurs, it may not be well-placed to repay its depositors immediately. Relative to the prudent industry loan to deposit level of 90%, AVANGARD BANK’s ratio of over 41.19% is markedly lower, which means the bank is lending out less than its total level of deposits and places the bank in a relatively safe liquidity position given it has not excessively lent out its deposits and has maintained a suitable level for compliance. There is opportunity for the bank to increase its interest income by lending out more loans.
AVANGARD BANK meets all of our liquidity and leverage criteria, exhibiting operational prudency. The operational risk side of a bank is an important fundamental often overlooked by investors. High liquidity and low leverage places the bank in an ideal position to repay financial liabilities in case of adverse headwinds. Keep in mind that a stock investment requires research on more than just its operational side. Below, I’ve compiled three essential factors you should look at:
- Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for AVAN’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for AVAN’s outlook.
- Historical Performance: What has AVAN’s returns been like over the past? Go into more detail in the past track record analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of our analysis for more clarity.
- Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
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