Naftna Industrija Srbije a.d Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of NIIS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

NIIS (RSD800) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (RSD99.89)

Is NIIS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NIIS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NIIS (RSD800) is trading above our estimate of fair value (RSD99.89)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NIIS is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NIIS?

Key metric: As NIIS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NIIS. This is calculated by dividing NIIS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NIIS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	6.2x
Earnings	дин21.20b
Market Cap	дин130.45b

NIIS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	3.6x
PEG Ratio	-0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NIIS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NIIS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	32.7x
DANA Dana Gas PJSC	9x	22.2%	د.إ4.8b
600617 Shanxi Guoxin Energy	52.6x	n/a	CN¥5.5b
YAKG Yakutsk Fuel and Energy	68.2x	n/a	₽90.3b
RNFT RussNeft	0.9x	n/a	₽26.1b
NIIS Naftna Industrija Srbije a.d	6.2x	-11.9%	дин130.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NIIS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.2x) compared to the peer average (30.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NIIS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

5 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

5 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NIIS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.2x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (9.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NIIS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NIIS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.2x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NIIS's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.