Sphera Franchise Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of SFG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

SFG (RON40.5) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (RON41.41)

Is SFG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SFG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SFG (RON40.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (RON41.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SFG is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SFG?

Key metric: As SFG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SFG. This is calculated by dividing SFG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SFG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	14.4x
Earnings	RON 108.89m
Market Cap	RON 1.57b

SFG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9.7x
PEG Ratio	1.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SFG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SFG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	34x
ARCU Sifi Cluj Retail	19.7x	n/a	RON 133.0m
RCHI Societatea Comerciala Compania Hoteliera Intercontinental Romania	48.1x	n/a	RON 201.7m
9900 Sagami Holdings	45x	n/a	JP¥51.8b
8163 SRS HoldingsLtd	23x	n/a	JP¥46.6b
SFG Sphera Franchise Group	14.4x	10.1%	RON 1.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SFG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the peer average (33.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SFG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Hospitality Industry?

10 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

10 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SFG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the European Hospitality industry average (17x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SFG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SFG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	14.4x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate SFG's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SFG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	RON 40.50	RON 35.60 -12.1%	26.5%	RON 47.50	RON 23.28	n/a	4
Nov ’25	RON 40.30	RON 35.60 -11.7%	26.5%	RON 47.50	RON 23.28	n/a	4
Oct ’25	RON 39.40	RON 35.60 -9.7%	26.5%	RON 47.50	RON 23.28	n/a	4
Sep ’25	RON 40.70	RON 33.25 -18.3%	21.2%	RON 41.40	RON 23.28	n/a	4
Aug ’25	RON 40.40	RON 33.25 -17.7%	21.2%	RON 41.40	RON 23.28	n/a	4
Jul ’25	RON 37.80	RON 36.57 -3.3%	12.9%	RON 41.40	RON 30.20	n/a	3
Jun ’25	RON 34.50	RON 36.57 +6.0%	12.9%	RON 41.40	RON 30.20	n/a	3
May ’25	RON 33.70	RON 31.73 -5.8%	14.8%	RON 38.10	RON 26.90	n/a	3
Apr ’25	RON 29.30	RON 27.73 -5.3%	6.4%	RON 30.20	RON 26.10	n/a	3
Mar ’25	RON 28.00	RON 27.73 -1.0%	6.4%	RON 30.20	RON 26.10	n/a	3
Feb ’25	RON 26.00	RON 27.73 +6.7%	6.4%	RON 30.20	RON 26.10	n/a	3
Jan ’25	RON 25.70	RON 27.73 +7.9%	6.4%	RON 30.20	RON 26.10	n/a	3
Dec ’24	RON 20.50	RON 26.50 +29.3%	1.5%	RON 26.90	RON 26.10	n/a	2
Nov ’24	RON 20.00	RON 26.50 +32.5%	1.5%	RON 26.90	RON 26.10	RON 40.30	2
Oct ’24	RON 20.70	RON 23.37 +12.9%	19.0%	RON 26.90	RON 17.10	RON 39.40	3
Sep ’24	RON 20.00	RON 21.80 +9.0%	18.4%	RON 26.90	RON 17.10	RON 40.70	3
Aug ’24	RON 20.50	RON 21.80 +6.3%	18.4%	RON 26.90	RON 17.10	RON 40.40	3
Jul ’24	RON 18.05	RON 19.25 +6.6%	11.2%	RON 21.40	RON 17.10	RON 37.80	2
Jun ’24	RON 18.35	RON 19.25 +4.9%	11.2%	RON 21.40	RON 17.10	RON 34.50	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.