Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of QNBK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

QNBK (QAR17.1) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (QAR3.5)

Is QNBK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of QNBK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: QNBK (QAR17.1) is trading above our estimate of fair value (QAR3.5)

Significantly Below Fair Value: QNBK is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for QNBK?

Key metric: As QNBK is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for QNBK. This is calculated by dividing QNBK's market cap by their current earnings.
What is QNBK's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	10.4x
Earnings	ر.ق15.20b
Market Cap	ر.ق157.94b

QNBK key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	1.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does QNBK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for QNBK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	11.7x
QIBK Qatar Islamic Bank (Q.P.S.C.)	11.4x	2.2%	ر.ق48.9b
MARK Masraf Al Rayan (Q.P.S.C.)	14.9x	13.4%	ر.ق21.8b
QIIK Qatar International Islamic Bank (Q.P.S.C)	14.3x	10.6%	ر.ق16.1b
CBQK Commercial Bank (P.S.Q.C.)	6x	1.9%	ر.ق16.8b
QNBK Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.)	10.4x	7.9%	ر.ق157.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: QNBK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.4x) compared to the peer average (11.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does QNBK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Banks Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: QNBK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.4x) compared to the Asian Banks industry average (8.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is QNBK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

QNBK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	10.4x
Fair PE Ratio	12.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: QNBK is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst QNBK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.ق17.10	ر.ق19.39 +13.4%	7.6%	ر.ق21.00	ر.ق15.65	n/a	10
Nov ’25	ر.ق17.35	ر.ق19.39 +11.7%	7.6%	ر.ق21.00	ر.ق15.65	n/a	10
Oct ’25	ر.ق17.00	ر.ق18.22 +7.2%	8.4%	ر.ق21.00	ر.ق15.25	n/a	10
Sep ’25	ر.ق15.87	ر.ق18.22 +14.8%	8.4%	ر.ق21.00	ر.ق15.25	n/a	10
Aug ’25	ر.ق15.40	ر.ق18.22 +18.3%	8.4%	ر.ق21.00	ر.ق15.25	n/a	10
Jul ’25	ر.ق14.72	ر.ق18.26 +24.1%	8.5%	ر.ق21.00	ر.ق15.25	n/a	10
Jun ’25	ر.ق13.50	ر.ق18.26 +35.3%	8.5%	ر.ق21.00	ر.ق15.25	n/a	10
May ’25	ر.ق13.90	ر.ق18.26 +31.4%	8.5%	ر.ق21.00	ر.ق15.25	n/a	10
Apr ’25	ر.ق14.28	ر.ق18.88 +32.2%	8.7%	ر.ق21.00	ر.ق15.90	n/a	10
Mar ’25	ر.ق15.23	ر.ق18.98 +24.6%	8.6%	ر.ق21.00	ر.ق15.90	n/a	10
Feb ’25	ر.ق15.49	ر.ق19.14 +23.5%	8.1%	ر.ق21.00	ر.ق15.90	n/a	10
Jan ’25	ر.ق16.53	ر.ق19.36 +17.1%	9.8%	ر.ق23.20	ر.ق16.90	n/a	10
Dec ’24	ر.ق15.70	ر.ق19.40 +23.5%	10.1%	ر.ق23.20	ر.ق16.90	n/a	10
Nov ’24	ر.ق14.99	ر.ق19.37 +29.2%	10.3%	ر.ق23.20	ر.ق16.60	ر.ق17.35	10
Oct ’24	ر.ق15.25	ر.ق19.84 +30.1%	10.3%	ر.ق23.10	ر.ق16.60	ر.ق17.00	9
Sep ’24	ر.ق15.60	ر.ق19.89 +27.5%	10.0%	ر.ق23.10	ر.ق16.60	ر.ق15.87	9
Aug ’24	ر.ق17.15	ر.ق20.54 +19.8%	11.7%	ر.ق25.50	ر.ق17.50	ر.ق15.40	10
Jul ’24	ر.ق15.42	ر.ق20.61 +33.7%	13.0%	ر.ق25.50	ر.ق17.50	ر.ق14.72	10
Jun ’24	ر.ق16.06	ر.ق20.86 +29.9%	11.9%	ر.ق25.50	ر.ق17.60	ر.ق13.50	10
May ’24	ر.ق15.65	ر.ق21.57 +37.9%	15.2%	ر.ق28.70	ر.ق17.60	ر.ق13.90	11
Apr ’24	ر.ق16.07	ر.ق22.98 +43.0%	13.0%	ر.ق28.70	ر.ق20.00	ر.ق14.28	10
Mar ’24	ر.ق16.59	ر.ق23.28 +40.3%	12.9%	ر.ق28.70	ر.ق20.00	ر.ق15.23	9
Feb ’24	ر.ق17.48	ر.ق23.40 +33.9%	12.4%	ر.ق28.70	ر.ق20.00	ر.ق15.49	9
Jan ’24	ر.ق18.00	ر.ق24.69 +37.2%	10.1%	ر.ق28.70	ر.ق20.20	ر.ق16.53	9
Dec ’23	ر.ق19.52	ر.ق24.76 +26.8%	8.4%	ر.ق28.70	ر.ق22.00	ر.ق15.70	9
Nov ’23	ر.ق19.95	ر.ق25.16 +26.1%	7.1%	ر.ق28.70	ر.ق22.00	ر.ق14.99	9

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.