Revenue Beat: ENEA S.A. Beat Analyst Estimates By 5.8%

The quarterly results for ENEA S.A. (WSE:ENA) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of zł3.80 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of zł8.0b came in 5.8% ahead of analyst predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for ENEA

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for ENEA from four analysts is for revenues of zł35.0b in 2023 which, if met, would be a major 34% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 34% to zł2.14 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of zł39.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of zł2.72 in 2023. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a real cut to revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the zł13.50 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on ENEA, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at zł21.40 and the most bearish at zł8.50 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting ENEA's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 27% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 17% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see a revenue decline of 1.4% annually. So it's clear with the acceleration in growth, ENEA is expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for ENEA. Sadly they also cut their revenue estimates, although at least the company is expected to perform a bit better than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple ENEA analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for ENEA (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.