Upcoming Dividend • Aug 06
Upcoming dividend of zł0.21 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 13 August 2026. Payment date: 31 August 2026. The company is not currently making a profit but it is cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 1.6%. Lower than top quartile of Polish dividend payers (6.8%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.7%). New Risk • May 27
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 5.0% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (13% operating cash flow to total debt). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (13% average weekly change). Earnings have declined by 5.0% per year over the past 5 years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 22
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 248% to zł13.15. The fair value is estimated to be zł10.91, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 4.9% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. New Risk • Mar 24
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Polish stocks, typically moving 11% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (13% operating cash flow to total debt). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (11% average weekly change). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (zł214.0m market cap, or US$58.0m). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 24
Now 33% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 278% to zł14.35. The fair value is estimated to be zł10.77, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 4.9% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. New Risk • Feb 19
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Polish stocks, typically moving 7.5% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (13% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.5% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (zł94.6m market cap, or US$26.4m). New Risk • Dec 01
New major risk - Financial position The company's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Operating cash flow to total debt ratio: 13% This is considered a major risk. If the company's operating cash flows are too small relative to the size of their debt, it increases their balance sheet risk. The company has less cash from operations to cover its expenses from servicing large debt and it increases the risk of liquidity issues. It also extends the time it would take for the company to pay back the debt in full, meaning it may not be able to easily pay it all off in a distress scenario. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (13% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Market cap is less than US$100m (zł72.7m market cap, or US$20.0m). Reported Earnings • Sep 28
Second quarter 2025 earnings released: zł0.07 loss per share (vs zł0.006 profit in 2Q 2024) Second quarter 2025 results: zł0.07 loss per share (down from zł0.006 profit in 2Q 2024). Revenue: zł53.8m (down 6.3% from 2Q 2024). Net loss: zł1.27m (down zł1.41m from profit in 2Q 2024). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 31% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 7% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Aug 25
Trans Polonia S.A. to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Sep 26, 2025 Trans Polonia S.A. announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Sep 26, 2025 New Risk • Jul 02
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Polish stocks, typically moving 7.7% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.7% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Market cap is less than US$100m (zł86.0m market cap, or US$23.8m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 26
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 23% After last week's 23% share price gain to zł4.76, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 22.2x. Average trailing P/E is 14x in the Transportation industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 74% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 10
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to zł3.70, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 17.3x. Average trailing P/E is 15x in the Transportation industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 33% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Nov 27
Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: zł0.14 (vs zł0.02 in 3Q 2023) Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: zł0.14 (up from zł0.02 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: zł57.6m (up 11% from 3Q 2023). Net income: zł2.59m (up zł2.24m from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 4.5% (up from 0.7% in 3Q 2023). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 30% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Reported Earnings • Sep 26
Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: zł0.01 (vs zł0.11 in 2Q 2023) Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: zł0.01 (down from zł0.11 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: zł57.4m (up 12% from 2Q 2023). Net income: zł139.0k (down 93% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 0.2% (down from 3.9% in 2Q 2023). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 52% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 09
Upcoming dividend of zł0.11 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 16 August 2024. Payment date: 30 August 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 63% and the cash payout ratio is 89%. Trailing yield: 3.5%. Lower than top quartile of Polish dividend payers (7.9%). Lower than average of industry peers (5.0%). New Risk • Jun 20
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 1.6% Last year net profit margin: 4.2% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (1.6% net profit margin). Market cap is less than US$100m (zł65.7m market cap, or US$16.3m). Announcement • May 31
Trans Polonia S.A., Annual General Meeting, Jun 24, 2024 Trans Polonia S.A., Annual General Meeting, Jun 24, 2024. New Risk • Feb 11
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 32% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings (162% payout ratio). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Market cap is less than US$100m (zł65.0m market cap, or US$16.2m). Reported Earnings • Nov 30
Third quarter 2023 earnings released Third quarter 2023 results: Revenue: zł52.1m (flat on 3Q 2022). Net income: zł347.0k (down 88% from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 0.7% (down from 5.4% in 3Q 2022). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 117% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Oct 01
Second quarter 2023 earnings released Second quarter 2023 results: Revenue: zł51.4m (up 8.7% from 2Q 2022). Net income: zł1.99m (down 6.7% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 3.9% (down from 4.5% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 120% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buying Opportunity • Sep 12
Now 20% undervalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days. The fair value is estimated to be zł4.79, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 50% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 07
Upcoming dividend of zł0.50 per share at 2.9% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 14 August 2023. Payment date: 28 August 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 39% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.9%. Lower than top quartile of Polish dividend payers (7.3%). Lower than average of industry peers (6.1%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 06
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 36% After last week's 36% share price gain to zł4.54, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 13.1x. Average trailing P/E is 14x in the Transportation industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 77% over the past three years. Announcement • Jun 13
Trans Polonia S.A., Annual General Meeting, Jun 30, 2023 Trans Polonia S.A., Annual General Meeting, Jun 30, 2023, at 13:00 Central European Standard Time. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 20
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to zł3.76, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 11.5x. Average trailing P/E is 16x in the Transportation industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 90% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Nov 30
Third quarter 2022 earnings released Third quarter 2022 results: Revenue: zł52.0m (up 56% from 3Q 2021). Net income: zł2.82m (up 96% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 5.4% (up from 4.3% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Reported Earnings • Sep 28
Second quarter 2022 earnings released Second quarter 2022 results: Revenue: zł47.3m (up 67% from 2Q 2021). Net income: zł2.13m (up zł2.93m from 2Q 2021). Profit margin: 4.5% (up from net loss in 2Q 2021). The move to profitability was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 84 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 05
Upcoming dividend of zł0.13 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 12 August 2022. Payment date: 26 August 2022. Trailing yield: 4.0%. Lower than top quartile of Polish dividend payers (8.5%). Lower than average of industry peers (4.7%). Reported Earnings • Nov 28
Third quarter 2021 earnings: Revenues in line with analyst expectations Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: zł33.3m (down 48% from 3Q 2020). Net income: zł1.44m (down 69% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 4.3% (down from 7.2% in 3Q 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 109 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Reported Earnings • Sep 29
Second quarter 2021 earnings released The company reported a poor second quarter result with weaker earnings, revenues and control over costs. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: zł28.3m (down 50% from 2Q 2020). Net loss: zł797.0k (down 116% from profit in 2Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 90 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 06
Upcoming dividend of zł0.27 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 13 August 2021. Payment date: 26 August 2021. Trailing yield: 6.9%. Within top quartile of Polish dividend payers (5.8%). Higher than average of industry peers (5.0%). Reported Earnings • Jun 03
First quarter 2021 earnings released The company reported a poor first quarter result with increased losses, weaker revenues and weaker control over costs. First quarter 2021 results: Revenue: zł22.8m (down 61% from 1Q 2020). Net loss: zł2.40m (loss widened 179% from 1Q 2020). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 4% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 12
New 90-day high: zł3.46 The company is up 24% from its price of zł2.78 on 11 December 2020. The Polish market is up 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Transportation industry, which is up 1.0% over the same period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 27
Market pulls back on stock over the past week After last week's 22% share price decline to zł2.70, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 4.9x, down from the previous P/E ratio of 6.3x. This compares to an average P/E of 14x in the Transportation industry in Europe. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 41%. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 20
Market bids up stock over the past week After last week's 20% share price gain to zł3.46, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 6.3x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 5.2x. This compares to an average P/E of 14x in the Transportation industry in Europe. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 30%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 20
New 90-day high: zł3.46 The company is up 21% from its price of zł2.85 on 21 August 2020. The Polish market is down 1.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Transportation industry, which is up 20% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 22
New 90-day low: zł2.74 The company is down 2.0% from its price of zł2.81 on 24 July 2020. The Polish market is down 10.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Transportation industry, which is up 1.0% over the same period. Reported Earnings • Sep 27
First half earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of zł12.4m, up 19% from the prior year. Total revenue was zł253.9m over the last 12 months, up 1.6% from the prior year.