We Think Asseco Poland's (WSE:ACP) Solid Earnings Are Understated

Investors signalled that they were pleased with Asseco Poland S.A.'s (WSE:ACP) most recent earnings report. This reaction by the market reaction is understandable when looking at headline profits and we have found some further encouraging factors.

Check out our latest analysis for Asseco Poland

A Closer Look At Asseco Poland's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to September 2024, Asseco Poland had an accrual ratio of -0.16. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. In fact, it had free cash flow of zł2.1b in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of zł507.8m. Asseco Poland's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Asseco Poland's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, Asseco Poland has perfectly satisfactory free cash flow relative to profit. Because of this, we think Asseco Poland's earnings potential is at least as good as it seems, and maybe even better! And on top of that, its earnings per share have grown at 25% per year over the last three years. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. Obviously, we love to consider the historical data to inform our opinion of a company. But it can be really valuable to consider what other analysts are forecasting. Luckily, you can check out what analysts are forecasting by clicking here.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Asseco Poland's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.