Buying Opportunity • Jun 30
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 2.8%. The fair value is estimated to be zł99.10, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 42% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 55%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 1.7% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to decline by 6.2% per annum over the same time period. Buying Opportunity • Jun 07
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 2.0%. The fair value is estimated to be zł101, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 42% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 55%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 1.7% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to decline by 6.2% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Jun 04
Alumetal S.A., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2023 Alumetal S.A., Annual General Meeting, Jun 27, 2023, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time. Major Estimate Revision • May 11
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 27% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from zł2.79b to zł2.61b. EPS estimate also fell from zł12.06 per share to zł8.77 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 42% next year vs 47% decline forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Poland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at zł87.05. Share price was steady at zł81.60 over the past week. Buying Opportunity • Apr 21
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 14%. The fair value is estimated to be zł106, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 41% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 58%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 4.7% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to decline by 14% per annum over the same time period. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 19
Upcoming dividend of zł10.52 per share at 17% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 26 April 2023. Payment date: 27 July 2023. Payout ratio is on the higher end at 88%, and the cash payout ratio is above 100%. Trailing yield: 17%. Within top quartile of Polish dividend payers (8.2%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.8%). Price Target Changed • Apr 18
Price target increased by 7.7% to zł85.95 Up from zł79.80, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of zł84.30. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of zł12.06 for next year compared to zł15.69 last year. Reported Earnings • Mar 17
Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: zł15.69 (vs zł9.73 in FY 2021) Full year 2022 results: EPS: zł15.69 (up from zł9.73 in FY 2021). Revenue: zł3.27b (up 49% from FY 2021). Net income: zł245.3m (up 62% from FY 2021). Profit margin: 7.5% (up from 6.9% in FY 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to fall by 2.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 1.4% decline forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Poland. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 58% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 40% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Jan 31
Alumetal S.A. to Report Q4, 2022 Results on Mar 15, 2023 Alumetal S.A. announced that they will report Q4, 2022 results on Mar 15, 2023 Buying Opportunity • Jan 07
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 4.7%. The fair value is estimated to be zł89.09, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 35% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 59%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 2.5% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to decline by 6.0% per annum over the same time period. Upcoming Dividend • Dec 15
Upcoming dividend of zł3.30 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 22 December 2022. Payment date: 29 December 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 73% but the company is paying out more than the cash it is generating. Trailing yield: 9.4%. Within top quartile of Polish dividend payers (8.4%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.3%). Reported Earnings • Nov 17
Third quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: zł3.76 (vs zł1.86 in 3Q 2021) Third quarter 2022 results: EPS: zł3.76 (up from zł1.86 in 3Q 2021). Revenue: zł763.5m (up 42% from 3Q 2021). Net income: zł58.7m (up 103% from 3Q 2021). Profit margin: 7.7% (up from 5.4% in 3Q 2021). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to fall by 2.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 1.2% decline forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Poland. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 59% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 23% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 22
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 35% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has improved. 2022 revenue forecast increased from zł2.86b to zł3.01b. EPS estimate increased from zł10.83 to zł14.65 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 13% next year vs 20% decline forecast for Metals and Mining industry in Poland. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at zł82.35. Share price rose 5.6% to zł66.00 over the past week. Buying Opportunity • Oct 14
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 6.7%. The fair value is estimated to be zł78.49, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 27% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 55%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 3.6% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to decline by 13% per annum over the same time period. Buying Opportunity • Sep 26
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 3.4%. The fair value is estimated to be zł88.44, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 27% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 55%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to decline by 0.9% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to decline by 16% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • May 14
First quarter 2022 earnings released: EPS: zł3.76 (vs zł3.25 in 1Q 2021) First quarter 2022 results: EPS: zł3.76 (up from zł3.25 in 1Q 2021). Revenue: zł838.5m (up 63% from 1Q 2021). Net income: zł58.6m (up 16% from 1Q 2021). Profit margin: 7.0% (down from 9.9% in 1Q 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the next year, revenue is expected to shrink by 4.3% compared to a 25% growth forecast for the industry in Poland. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 48% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 21% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target increased to zł81.45 Up from zł73.95, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 13% above last closing price of zł72.00. Stock is up 18% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of zł10.83 for next year compared to zł9.73 last year. Upcoming Dividend • Apr 20
Upcoming dividend of zł6.80 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 27 April 2022. Payment date: 27 July 2022. Payout ratio is a comfortable 70% but the company is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 9.0%. Within top quartile of Polish dividend payers (7.1%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.0%). Announcement • Mar 29
Alumetal S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 21, 2022 Alumetal S.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 21, 2022, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time. Agenda: Annual General Meeting. Reported Earnings • Mar 17
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues and EPS in line with analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: EPS: zł9.73 (up from zł3.56 in FY 2020). Revenue: zł2.19b (up 106% from FY 2020). Net income: zł151.6m (up 175% from FY 2020). Profit margin: 6.9% (up from 5.2% in FY 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 11%, compared to a 19% growth forecast for the mining industry in Poland. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 38% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 16% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 01
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 15% share price gain to zł65.60, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Metals and Mining industry in Poland. Total returns to shareholders of 73% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at zł113 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 15
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 revenue forecast increased from zł1.96b to zł2.20b. EPS estimate unchanged from zł4.26 at last update. Metals and Mining industry in Poland expected to see average net income growth of 1.8% next year. Consensus price target of zł57.97 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 7.0% to zł61.40 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Dec 28
Price target decreased to zł57.97 Down from zł62.93, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 5.0% above last closing price of zł55.20. Stock is up 17% over the past year. The company posted earnings per share of zł3.56 last year. Reported Earnings • Nov 18
Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS zł1.86 (vs zł1.03 in 3Q 2020) The company reported a solid third quarter result with improved earnings and revenues, although profit margins were weaker. Third quarter 2021 results: Revenue: zł538.4m (up 116% from 3Q 2020). Net income: zł29.0m (up 83% from 3Q 2020). Profit margin: 5.4% (down from 6.4% in 3Q 2020). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 20% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 10% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Reported Earnings • Aug 21
Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS zł2.47 (vs zł0.26 in 2Q 2020) The company reported a strong second quarter result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. Second quarter 2021 results: Revenue: zł539.9m (up 237% from 2Q 2020). Net income: zł38.5m (up zł34.5m from 2Q 2020). Profit margin: 7.1% (up from 2.5% in 2Q 2020). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 2% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 7% per year. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 22
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 revenue forecast fell from zł2.14b to zł1.90b. EPS estimate unchanged from zł5.18 per share at last update. Metals and Mining industry in Poland expected to see average net income growth of 2.2% next year. Consensus price target of zł60.43 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 2.0% to zł60.20 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 01
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 revenue forecast increased from zł1.58b to zł1.80b. EPS estimate unchanged from zł7.50 at last update. Metals and Mining industry in Poland expected to see average net income decline 5.5% next year. Consensus price target of zł60.43 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at zł67.40 over the past week. Upcoming Dividend • May 31
Upcoming dividend of zł2.92 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 07 June 2021. Payment date: 28 June 2021. Trailing yield: 4.3%. Lower than top quartile of Polish dividend payers (5.9%). Higher than average of industry peers (1.6%). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 19
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to zł67.40, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 18x. Average forward P/E is 12x in the Metals and Mining industry in Poland. Total returns to shareholders of 42% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at zł89.51 per share. Announcement • May 19
Alumetal S.A. Provides Revenue Guidance for the Year 2021 Alumetal S.A. provided revenue guidance for the year 2021. For the year, the company targets sales revenues of over PLN 2 billion. Reported Earnings • Mar 24
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS zł3.56 (vs zł3.26 in FY 2019) The company reported a decent full year result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: zł1.06b (down 23% from FY 2019). Net income: zł55.0m (up 9.1% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 5.2% (up from 3.6% in FY 2019). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 25% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 2% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 01
New 90-day high: zł56.80 The company is up 31% from its price of zł43.50 on 01 December 2020. The Polish market is up 7.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 27% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is zł38.13 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 20
New 90-day high: zł55.00 The company is up 52% from its price of zł36.10 on 22 October 2020. The Polish market is up 17% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 45% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is zł36.93 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 14
Analysts update estimates The 2020 consensus earning per share (EPS) estimate increased from zł2.37 to zł2.89. Revenue estimate for the same period was approximately flat at zł1.07b. Net income is expected to grow by 22% next year compared to 10% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Poland. The consensus price target increased from zł41.37 to zł44.87. Share price is down by 1.1% to zł52.00 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Jan 13
Price target raised to zł44.87 Up from zł41.37, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. The new target price is 12% below the current share price of zł51.00. As of last close, the stock is up 15% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 28
New 90-day high: zł47.00 The company is up 31% from its price of zł35.90 on 29 September 2020. The Polish market is up 10.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 38% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is zł37.78 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 07
New 90-day high: zł44.20 The company is up 23% from its price of zł36.00 on 08 September 2020. The Polish market is up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 21% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is zł32.12 per share. Reported Earnings • Nov 25
Third quarter 2020 earnings released: EPS zł1.03 The company reported a decent third quarter result with improved earnings and profit margins, although revenues were weaker. Third quarter 2020 results: Revenue: zł249.2m (down 19% from 3Q 2019). Net income: zł15.9m (up 57% from 3Q 2019). Profit margin: 6.4% (up from 3.3% in 3Q 2019). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 23% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 6% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Analyst Estimate Surprise Post Earnings • Nov 25
Revenue and earnings miss expectations Revenue missed analyst estimates by 9.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 2.4%. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 20%, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Poland. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 09
New 90-day high: zł38.10 The company is up 1.0% from its price of zł37.60 on 11 August 2020. The Polish market is down 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is down 1.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is zł35.02 per share. Price Target Changed • Oct 09
Price target lowered to zł44.10 Down from zł53.50, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. The new target price is 22% above the current share price of zł36.20. As of last close, the stock is up 3.4% over the past year. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 09
Analysts lower revenue estimates to zł1.09b The 2020 consensus revenue estimate decreased from zł1.22b. Earning per share (EPS) estimate was also lowered from zł3.54 to zł2.54 for the same period. Net income is expected to grow by 17% next year compared to 17% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in Poland. The consensus price target was lowered from zł53.50 to zł44.10. Share price stayed mostly flat at zł36.20 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Sep 25
Price target raised to zł53.50 Up from zł46.95, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. The new target price is 51% above the current share price of zł35.40. As of last close, the stock is up 1.4% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 22
New 90-day low: zł35.50 The company is down 12% from its price of zł40.50 on 24 June 2020. The Polish market is down 3.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Metals and Mining industry, which is up 38% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is zł40.09 per share.