M Food S.A.'s (WSE:MFD) 33% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

M Food S.A. (WSE:MFD) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 33% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Still, the 30-day jump doesn't change the fact that longer term shareholders have seen their stock decimated by the 60% share price drop in the last twelve months.

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about M Food's P/S ratio of 0.1x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Food industry in Poland is also close to 0.4x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

Check out our latest analysis for M Food

How M Food Has Been Performing

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at M Food over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for M Food, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like M Food's to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 39%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 42% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 4.3% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that M Food's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

M Food appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

The fact that M Food currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for M Food you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.