Volkswagen Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of VOW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

VOW (PLN354.4) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (PLN1478.32)

Is VOW undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VOW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VOW (PLN354.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PLN1478.32)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VOW is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VOW?

Key metric: As VOW is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for VOW. This is calculated by dividing VOW's market cap by their current earnings.
What is VOW's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	3.4x
Earnings	€12.26b
Market Cap	€42.07b

VOW key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	10.1x
PEG Ratio	0.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VOW's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for VOW vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	7.4x
F Ford Motor	12.8x	19.7%	US$44.4b
BMW Bayerische Motoren Werke	5.3x	5.6%	€43.2b
7267 Honda Motor	6.3x	5.7%	JP¥6.3t
A005380 Hyundai Motor	5.1x	5.0%	₩53.9t
VOW Volkswagen	3.4x	9.6%	zł42.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VOW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.4x) compared to the peer average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VOW's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Auto Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VOW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.4x) compared to the Global Auto industry average (15.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VOW's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VOW PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	3.4x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate VOW's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VOW forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	zł354.40	zł504.29 +42.3%	18.9%	zł777.83	zł361.98	n/a	21
Nov ’25	zł387.70	zł512.97 +32.3%	18.3%	zł787.37	zł366.42	n/a	21
Oct ’25	zł414.00	zł534.31 +29.1%	20.1%	zł792.80	zł359.97	n/a	21
Sep ’25	zł410.10	zł561.90 +37.0%	17.6%	zł792.20	zł415.37	n/a	21
Aug ’25	zł424.00	zł586.01 +38.2%	17.2%	zł795.86	zł430.19	n/a	21
Jul ’25	zł454.10	zł612.82 +35.0%	16.5%	zł800.13	zł432.50	n/a	21
Jun ’25	zł492.70	zł602.63 +22.3%	16.7%	zł786.57	zł425.17	n/a	21
May ’25	zł505.00	zł617.06 +22.2%	15.8%	zł800.29	zł432.59	n/a	21
Apr ’25	zł531.00	zł613.79 +15.6%	16.0%	zł794.73	zł429.58	n/a	21
Mar ’25	zł534.00	zł609.95 +14.2%	15.6%	zł800.42	zł432.66	n/a	22
Feb ’25	zł521.10	zł607.61 +16.6%	15.8%	zł809.38	zł437.50	n/a	21
Jan ’25	zł481.40	zł603.70 +25.4%	15.9%	zł816.53	zł429.75	n/a	20
Dec ’24	zł455.00	zł601.16 +32.1%	17.2%	zł825.44	zł434.44	n/a	20
Nov ’24	zł450.00	zł631.93 +40.4%	17.1%	zł846.89	zł445.73	zł387.70	20
Oct ’24	zł502.70	zł728.87 +45.0%	31.3%	zł1,583.80	zł460.41	zł414.00	21
Sep ’24	zł488.10	zł710.47 +45.6%	30.9%	zł1,536.42	zł446.63	zł410.10	21
Aug ’24	zł536.00	zł713.45 +33.1%	28.9%	zł1,514.75	zł506.38	zł424.00	21
Jul ’24	zł545.80	zł736.89 +35.0%	27.3%	zł1,494.32	zł511.45	zł454.10	21
Jun ’24	zł540.00	zł760.16 +40.8%	28.1%	zł1,517.96	zł519.54	zł492.70	21
May ’24	zł560.00	zł787.19 +40.6%	28.2%	zł1,540.01	zł527.09	zł505.00	22
Apr ’24	zł584.00	zł803.44 +37.6%	29.2%	zł1,574.61	zł523.46	zł531.00	23
Mar ’24	zł616.40	zł826.17 +34.0%	26.9%	zł1,403.55	zł531.45	zł534.00	22
Feb ’24	zł600.00	zł817.09 +36.2%	26.8%	zł1,387.40	zł525.33	zł521.10	22
Jan ’24	zł552.10	zł847.76 +53.6%	27.6%	zł1,374.70	zł520.52	zł481.40	22
Dec ’23	zł664.50	zł875.39 +31.7%	27.0%	zł1,380.36	zł522.67	zł455.00	21
Nov ’23	n/a	zł911.25 0%	27.2%	zł1,391.87	zł527.02	zł450.00	20

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.