Oil and Gas Development Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of OGDC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

OGDC (PKR194.69) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (PKR85.92)

Is OGDC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OGDC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OGDC (PKR194.69) is trading above our estimate of fair value (PKR85.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OGDC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OGDC?

Key metric: As OGDC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for OGDC. This is calculated by dividing OGDC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is OGDC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	4.2x
Earnings	PK₨200.96b
Market Cap	PK₨837.35b

OGDC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	2.1x
PEG Ratio	-0.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OGDC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for OGDC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	22.4x
PPL Pakistan Petroleum	3.9x	-16.0%	PK₨423.0b
MARI Mari Petroleum	7.2x	-6.7%	PK₨556.1b
POL Pakistan Oilfields	5.4x	6.2%	PK₨163.0b
TPZ Topaz Energy	73x	4.2%	CA$4.5b
OGDC Oil and Gas Development	4.2x	-9.0%	PK₨837.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: OGDC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.2x) compared to the peer average (22.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OGDC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Oil and Gas Industry?

8 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

8 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OGDC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.2x) compared to the Asian Oil and Gas industry average (10.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OGDC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OGDC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	4.2x
Fair PE Ratio	5.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: OGDC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst OGDC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	PK₨194.69	PK₨201.14 +3.3%	13.0%	PK₨250.00	PK₨175.00	n/a	7
Nov ’25	PK₨179.49	PK₨193.29 +7.7%	13.5%	PK₨250.00	PK₨170.00	n/a	7
Oct ’25	PK₨146.05	PK₨186.80 +27.9%	9.5%	PK₨220.00	PK₨170.00	n/a	5
Sep ’25	PK₨132.90	PK₨186.80 +40.6%	9.5%	PK₨220.00	PK₨170.00	n/a	5
Aug ’25	PK₨128.48	PK₨180.00 +40.1%	16.0%	PK₨220.00	PK₨124.00	n/a	7
Jul ’25	PK₨135.53	PK₨180.00 +32.8%	16.0%	PK₨220.00	PK₨124.00	n/a	7
Jun ’25	PK₨133.47	PK₨180.00 +34.9%	16.0%	PK₨220.00	PK₨124.00	n/a	7
May ’25	PK₨133.57	PK₨171.42 +28.3%	18.3%	PK₨220.00	PK₨124.00	n/a	8
Apr ’25	PK₨119.77	PK₨171.63 +43.3%	19.3%	PK₨220.00	PK₨124.00	n/a	7
Mar ’25	PK₨123.33	PK₨171.63 +39.2%	19.3%	PK₨220.00	PK₨124.00	n/a	7
Feb ’25	PK₨144.26	PK₨167.34 +16.0%	16.8%	PK₨207.00	PK₨124.00	n/a	7
Jan ’25	PK₨120.88	PK₨158.34 +31.0%	16.1%	PK₨190.00	PK₨124.00	n/a	7
Dec ’24	PK₨110.37	PK₨153.06 +38.7%	15.5%	PK₨188.00	PK₨124.00	n/a	6
Nov ’24	PK₨100.44	PK₨148.40 +47.7%	13.5%	PK₨188.00	PK₨124.00	PK₨179.49	6
Oct ’24	PK₨96.46	PK₨138.38 +43.5%	17.3%	PK₨188.00	PK₨102.50	PK₨146.05	8
Sep ’24	PK₨94.46	PK₨135.13 +43.1%	13.4%	PK₨162.00	PK₨102.50	PK₨132.90	8
Aug ’24	PK₨97.93	PK₨137.69 +40.6%	10.4%	PK₨162.00	PK₨119.00	PK₨128.48	8
Jul ’24	PK₨78.00	PK₨139.39 +78.7%	10.3%	PK₨162.00	PK₨119.00	PK₨135.53	9
Jun ’24	PK₨75.23	PK₨141.84 +88.5%	12.7%	PK₨176.00	PK₨119.00	PK₨133.47	9
May ’24	PK₨85.97	PK₨141.72 +64.9%	12.7%	PK₨176.00	PK₨119.00	PK₨133.57	9
Apr ’24	PK₨83.36	PK₨145.06 +74.0%	13.8%	PK₨185.00	PK₨119.00	PK₨119.77	9
Mar ’24	PK₨80.85	PK₨145.17 +79.6%	13.7%	PK₨185.00	PK₨120.00	PK₨123.33	9
Feb ’24	PK₨87.30	PK₨148.83 +70.5%	15.1%	PK₨187.00	PK₨120.00	PK₨144.26	9
Jan ’24	PK₨79.66	PK₨151.63 +90.3%	15.0%	PK₨187.00	PK₨120.00	PK₨120.88	7
Dec ’23	PK₨72.46	PK₨151.63 +109.3%	15.0%	PK₨187.00	PK₨120.00	PK₨110.37	7
Nov ’23	PK₨70.93	PK₨154.30 +117.5%	13.8%	PK₨187.00	PK₨120.00	PK₨100.44	8

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.