Oil and Gas Development Company Limited

KASE:OGDC Stock Report

Market Cap: PK₨824.7b

Oil and Gas Development Valuation

Is OGDC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OGDC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OGDC (PKR191.76) is trading above our estimate of fair value (PKR86.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OGDC is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OGDC?

Key metric: As OGDC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for OGDC. This is calculated by dividing OGDC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is OGDC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio4.1x
EarningsPK₨200.96b
Market CapPK₨824.75b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OGDC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for OGDC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21.4x
PPL Pakistan Petroleum
4.2x-16.0%PK₨454.9b
MARI Mari Petroleum
7.2x-6.7%PK₨557.8b
POL Pakistan Oilfields
5.4x6.2%PK₨164.3b
TPZ Topaz Energy
68.9x4.2%CA$4.2b
OGDC Oil and Gas Development
4.1x-8.6%PK₨824.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: OGDC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.1x) compared to the peer average (21.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OGDC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Oil and Gas Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
OGDC 4.1xIndustry Avg. 10.7xNo. of Companies36PE0816243240+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OGDC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.1x) compared to the Asian Oil and Gas industry average (10.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OGDC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OGDC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio4.1x
Fair PE Ratio5.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: OGDC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst OGDC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentPK₨191.87
PK₨216.00
+12.6%
13.7%PK₨252.00PK₨179.00n/a6
Nov ’25PK₨179.49
PK₨193.29
+7.7%
13.5%PK₨250.00PK₨170.00n/a7
Oct ’25PK₨146.05
PK₨186.80
+27.9%
9.5%PK₨220.00PK₨170.00n/a5
Sep ’25PK₨132.90
PK₨186.80
+40.6%
9.5%PK₨220.00PK₨170.00n/a5
Aug ’25PK₨128.48
PK₨180.00
+40.1%
16.0%PK₨220.00PK₨124.00n/a7
Jul ’25PK₨135.53
PK₨180.00
+32.8%
16.0%PK₨220.00PK₨124.00n/a7
Jun ’25PK₨133.47
PK₨180.00
+34.9%
16.0%PK₨220.00PK₨124.00n/a7
May ’25PK₨133.57
PK₨171.42
+28.3%
18.3%PK₨220.00PK₨124.00n/a8
Apr ’25PK₨119.77
PK₨171.63
+43.3%
19.3%PK₨220.00PK₨124.00n/a7
Mar ’25PK₨123.33
PK₨171.63
+39.2%
19.3%PK₨220.00PK₨124.00n/a7
Feb ’25PK₨144.26
PK₨167.34
+16.0%
16.8%PK₨207.00PK₨124.00n/a7
Jan ’25PK₨120.88
PK₨158.34
+31.0%
16.1%PK₨190.00PK₨124.00n/a7
Dec ’24PK₨110.37
PK₨153.06
+38.7%
15.5%PK₨188.00PK₨124.00PK₨195.256
Nov ’24PK₨100.44
PK₨148.40
+47.7%
13.5%PK₨188.00PK₨124.00PK₨179.496
Oct ’24PK₨96.46
PK₨138.38
+43.5%
17.3%PK₨188.00PK₨102.50PK₨146.058
Sep ’24PK₨94.46
PK₨135.13
+43.1%
13.4%PK₨162.00PK₨102.50PK₨132.908
Aug ’24PK₨97.93
PK₨137.69
+40.6%
10.4%PK₨162.00PK₨119.00PK₨128.488
Jul ’24PK₨78.00
PK₨139.39
+78.7%
10.3%PK₨162.00PK₨119.00PK₨135.539
Jun ’24PK₨75.23
PK₨141.84
+88.5%
12.7%PK₨176.00PK₨119.00PK₨133.479
May ’24PK₨85.97
PK₨141.72
+64.9%
12.7%PK₨176.00PK₨119.00PK₨133.579
Apr ’24PK₨83.36
PK₨145.06
+74.0%
13.8%PK₨185.00PK₨119.00PK₨119.779
Mar ’24PK₨80.85
PK₨145.17
+79.6%
13.7%PK₨185.00PK₨120.00PK₨123.339
Feb ’24PK₨87.30
PK₨148.83
+70.5%
15.1%PK₨187.00PK₨120.00PK₨144.269
Jan ’24PK₨79.66
PK₨151.63
+90.3%
15.0%PK₨187.00PK₨120.00PK₨120.887
Dec ’23PK₨72.46
PK₨151.63
+109.3%
15.0%PK₨187.00PK₨120.00PK₨110.377

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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