Pak Suzuki Motor (KASE:PSMC) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of PSMC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

PSMC (PKR197.02) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (PKR21.3)

PSMC fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	0/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	3/6

PSMC Stock Overview

Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited engages in manufacturing, assembling, and marketing of cars and motorcycles in Pakistan.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 46.37% per year

Earnings grew by 322.9% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Does not have a meaningful market cap (PKR16B)

Pak Suzuki Motor Competitors

Honda Atlas Cars (Pakistan)

KASE:HCAR

PK₨27.0b

Ghandhara Industries

KASE:GHNI

PK₨6.9b

Indus Motor

KASE:INDU

PK₨84.1b

Ghandhara Nissan

KASE:GHNL

PK₨3.4b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Pak Suzuki Motor
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	PK₨197.02
52 Week High	PK₨362.00
52 Week Low	PK₨152.03
Beta	1.5
1 Month Change	-2.66%
3 Month Change	11.94%
1 Year Change	-44.36%
3 Year Change	25.63%
5 Year Change	-60.91%
Change since IPO	208.14%

Shareholder Returns

	PSMC	PK Auto	PK Market
7D	17.0%	4.7%	2.3%
1Y	-44.4%	-31.3%	-15.8%

Return vs Industry: PSMC underperformed the PK Auto industry which returned -30.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PSMC underperformed the PK Market which returned -16.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is PSMC's price volatile compared to industry and market?
PSMC volatility
PSMC Average Weekly Movement	5.5%
Auto Industry Average Movement	5.2%
Market Average Movement	5.3%
10% most volatile stocks in PK Market	8.0%
10% least volatile stocks in PK Market	3.4%

Stable Share Price: PSMC is not significantly more volatile than the rest of PK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: PSMC's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1983	2,178	Mark Harano	https://www.suzukipakistan.com

Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited engages in manufacturing, assembling, and marketing of cars and motorcycles in Pakistan. The company operates in two segments, Automobiles and Motorcycles. It offers Suzuki cars, pickups, vans, 4x4s, outboard motors, and engines, as well as related spare parts.

Pak Suzuki Motor Fundamentals Summary

How do Pak Suzuki Motor's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
PSMC fundamental statistics
Market Cap	PK₨16.21b
Earnings (TTM)	PK₨1.44b
Revenue (TTM)	PK₨170.14b

11.2x

P/E Ratio

0.1x

P/S Ratio

Is PSMC overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
PSMC income statement (TTM)
Revenue	PK₨170.14b
Cost of Revenue	PK₨162.91b
Gross Profit	PK₨7.23b
Other Expenses	PK₨5.79b
Earnings	PK₨1.44b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	17.51
Gross Margin	4.25%
Net Profit Margin	0.85%
Debt/Equity Ratio	6.7%

How did PSMC perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.3%

Current Dividend Yield

37%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is PSMC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PSMC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for PSMC. This is calculated by dividing PSMC's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is PSMC's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	PK₨16.21b

PSMC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	0.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PSMC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

PSMC PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for PSMC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	6.5x
HCAR Honda Atlas Cars (Pakistan)	8.4x	18.4%	PK₨27.0b
GHNI Ghandhara Industries	4.4x	n/a	PK₨6.9b
INDU Indus Motor	4.3x	2.6%	PK₨84.1b
GHNL Ghandhara Nissan	8.7x	n/a	PK₨3.4b
PSMC Pak Suzuki Motor	11.2x	46.4%	PK₨16.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PSMC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x) compared to the peer average (6.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PSMC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Auto Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PSMC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x) compared to the PK Auto industry average (8.2x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PSMC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PSMC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	11.2x
Fair PE Ratio	11.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PSMC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PSMC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PSMC (PKR197.02) is trading above our estimate of fair value (PKR21.3)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PSMC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Pak Suzuki Motor forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

46.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PSMC's forecast earnings growth (46.4% per year) is above the savings rate (10.5%).

Earnings vs Market: PSMC's earnings (46.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the PK market (6.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PSMC's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PSMC's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the PK market (5.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PSMC's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PSMC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12.3%).

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Past Performance

How has Pak Suzuki Motor performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-25.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PSMC has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: PSMC's current net profit margins (0.8%) are higher than last year (0.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PSMC's earnings have declined by 25.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: PSMC's earnings growth over the past year (322.9%) exceeds its 5-year average (-25.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: PSMC earnings growth over the past year (322.9%) exceeded the Auto industry 14.4%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: PSMC's Return on Equity (5.5%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Pak Suzuki Motor's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PSMC's short term assets (PKR82.5B) exceed its short term liabilities (PKR78.5B).

Long Term Liabilities: PSMC's short term assets (PKR82.5B) exceed its long term liabilities (PKR3.5B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PSMC has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if PSMC's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: PSMC's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (569.3%).

Interest Coverage: PSMC earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Pak Suzuki Motor current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

3.30%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: PSMC's dividend (3.3%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the PK market (3.8%).

High Dividend: PSMC's dividend (3.3%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the PK market (10.99%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: PSMC's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: PSMC's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (37.1%), PSMC's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (9.9%), PSMC's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.0yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Mark Harano

5.08yrs

Tenure

Mr. Masafumi Harano, also known as Mark, has been the Chief Executive Officer of Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited since July 13, 2017. Mr. Harano served as Executive Vice President of Automotive Operations...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: PSMC's management team is seasoned and experienced (5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: PSMC's board of directors are considered experienced (4.5 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/10 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/10 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31