Ayala Land Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Ayala Land is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 14% and 5.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 13.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10.9% in 3 years.

Key information

14.0%

Earnings growth rate

13.7%

EPS growth rate

Real Estate earnings growth	9.8%
Revenue growth rate	5.9%
Future return on equity	10.9%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	14 Nov 2024

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

PSE:ALI - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (PHP Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	192,950	37,005	5,773	45,555	8
12/31/2025	179,502	31,701	1,600	39,813	10
12/31/2024	161,868	27,523	-2,518	35,467	10
9/30/2024	175,153	27,195	13,065	16,637	N/A
6/30/2024	167,124	26,166	23,411	24,773	N/A
3/31/2024	158,956	26,208	29,754	31,349	N/A
12/31/2023	148,857	24,429	19,540	21,360	N/A
9/30/2023	139,161	23,605	9,851	17,295	N/A
6/30/2023	139,225	21,868	12,004	18,776	N/A
3/31/2023	132,846	19,900	9,922	15,240	N/A
12/31/2022	126,556	18,555	21,924	26,348	N/A
9/30/2022	119,850	16,920	10,501	14,275	N/A
6/30/2022	110,524	14,204	13,442	16,410	N/A
3/31/2022	106,121	12,555	10,050	13,125	N/A
12/31/2021	106,143	12,166	4,711	7,926	N/A
9/30/2021	105,556	10,887	27,010	26,427	N/A
6/30/2021	104,031	10,188	16,829	17,245	N/A
3/31/2021	92,509	7,123	5,830	7,661	N/A
12/31/2020	96,273	8,665	-15,606	-12,507	N/A
9/30/2020	110,458	16,283	11,246	16,717	N/A
6/30/2020	126,776	22,488	3,109	11,122	N/A
3/31/2020	157,516	30,126	-6,754	4,568	N/A
12/31/2019	168,794	33,126	25,493	36,012	N/A
9/30/2019	170,012	31,619	-13,344	-8,645	N/A
6/30/2019	170,863	30,798	-19,323	-16,038	N/A
3/31/2019	170,743	29,984	770	2,624	N/A
12/31/2018	166,186	29,179	8,925	11,768	N/A
9/30/2018	159,059	28,203	-6,767	577	N/A
6/30/2018	154,075	27,269	N/A	25,763	N/A
3/31/2018	143,219	26,196	N/A	28,592	N/A
12/31/2017	140,999	25,243	N/A	24,234	N/A
9/30/2017	136,288	23,595	N/A	63,105	N/A
6/30/2017	132,626	22,618	N/A	44,395	N/A
3/31/2017	127,695	21,702	N/A	40,017	N/A
12/31/2016	123,266	20,846	N/A	33,688	N/A
9/30/2016	117,404	19,804	N/A	23,949	N/A
6/30/2016	111,195	18,920	N/A	25,593	N/A
3/31/2016	109,115	18,155	N/A	25,562	N/A
12/31/2015	105,693	17,630	N/A	20,182	N/A
9/30/2015	101,959	16,778	N/A	20,297	N/A
6/30/2015	99,641	16,075	N/A	24,891	N/A
3/31/2015	97,540	15,398	N/A	24,033	N/A
12/31/2014	95,228	14,741	N/A	35,165	N/A
9/30/2014	92,766	13,866	N/A	27,767	N/A
6/30/2014	90,866	13,111	N/A	28,791	N/A
3/31/2014	85,535	12,382	N/A	43,564	N/A
12/31/2013	81,302	11,680	N/A	27,239	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ALI's forecast earnings growth (14% per year) is above the savings rate (5.3%).

Earnings vs Market: ALI's earnings (14% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the PH market (12.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ALI's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ALI's revenue (5.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the PH market (7.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ALI's revenue (5.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ALI's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.9%).

Ayala Land Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Consensus forecasts updated

Price target raised to ₱44.30

Analysts update estimates

Recent updates

New minor risk - Shareholder dilution

Third quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ₱0.55 (vs ₱0.46 in 3Q 2023)

Ayala Land, Inc. (PSE:ALI) acquired remaining 50% stake in Cebu District Property Enterprise, Inc from AboitizLand, Inc. and Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc. (PSE:AEV) for PHP 1.81 billion.

Ayala Land, Inc. (PSE:ALI) acquired remaining 50% stake in Cebu District Property Enterprise, Inc from AboitizLand, Inc. and Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc. (PSE:AEV) for PHP 1.81 billion.

First half dividend increased to ₱0.29

Ayala Land, Inc. Approves Cash Dividend for the Second Half of 2024, Payable on November 22, 2024

Senior Vice President recently sold ₱2.0m worth of stock

Senior Vice President recently sold ₱835k worth of stock

New minor risk - Insider selling

Senior Vice President recently sold ₱14m worth of stock

Senior Vice President recently sold ₱6.6m worth of stock

Senior Vice President recently sold ₱6.2m worth of stock

Second quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ₱0.46 (vs ₱0.45 in 2Q 2023)

Insider recently sold ₱590k worth of stock

Ayala Land, Inc. (PSE:ALI) signed a letter of intent to acquire remaining 50% stake in Cebu District Property Enterprise, Inc from AboitizLand, Inc. and Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc. (PSE:AEV) for PHP 1.81 billion.

Insider recently sold ₱735k worth of stock

First quarter 2024 earnings released: EPS: ₱0.42 (vs ₱0.30 in 1Q 2023)

Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: ₱1.63 (vs ₱1.26 in FY 2022)

Ayala Land, Inc. Announces Resignation of Solomon M. Hermosura as Corporate Secretary and Group General Counsel, Effective February 29, 2024

Upcoming dividend of ₱0.20 per share

Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: ₱1.64 (vs ₱1.26 in FY 2022)

Dividend of ₱0.20 announced

Ayala Land, Inc. Approves Declaration of A Regular Cash Dividend for the First Half of 2024, Payable on March 21, 2024

Insider recently bought ₱6.1m worth of stock

Insider recently sold ₱3.3m worth of stock

Ayala Land, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Apr 25, 2024

Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind

Upcoming dividend of ₱0.22 per share at 1.6% yield

Ayala Land, Inc. Declares Regular Cash Dividend for the Second Half of 2023, Payable on November 24, 2023

Ayala Land, Inc. Announces Leadership Changes

Ayala Land, Inc. Announces CEO Changes

Ayala Land, Inc. Announces Executive Changes

Executive VP recently sold ₱1m worth of stock

Ayala Land, Inc. Appoints Isabel D. Sagun as Vice President and Operations HR Head

Second quarter 2023 earnings released: EPS: ₱0.45 (vs ₱0.33 in 2Q 2022)

New minor risk - Dividend sustainability

Executive VP recently sold ₱190k worth of stock

Less than half of directors are independent

First quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind

Executive VP recently sold ₱2.0m worth of stock

Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Insider recently sold ₱3.3m worth of stock

Insider recently sold ₱3.2m worth of stock

Ayala Land, Inc. Announces Executive Appointments

Less than half of directors are independent

Third quarter 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Less than half of directors are independent

Upcoming dividend of ₱0.14 per share

Ayala Land, Inc. Announces Board Changes

Ayala Land, Inc. Approves the Declaration of Cash Dividends, Payable on November 18, 2022

Ayala Land, Inc. Announces Resignation of Fernando Zobel De Ayala as Member and Chairman of Board

Ayala Land, Inc. Announces Board Changes

Ayala Land, Inc. Announces Board Changes

Investor sentiment improved over the past week

Second quarter 2022 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind

Insider recently bought ₱268k worth of stock

Insider recently bought ₱3.0m worth of stock

Insider recently sold ₱6.6m worth of stock

First quarter 2022 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint

Insider recently sold ₱1.2m worth of stock

Less than half of directors are independent

Full year 2021 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations

Upcoming dividend of ₱0.14 per share

Ayala Land, Inc. Approves Cash Dividend, Payable on March 25, 2022

Insider recently sold ₱3.7m worth of stock

Insider recently bought ₱175k worth of stock

Insider recently sold ₱760k worth of stock

Third quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS ₱0.17 (vs ₱0.12 in 3Q 2020)

Insider recently sold ₱1.8m worth of stock

Insider recently sold ₱1.9m worth of stock

Insider recently sold ₱1.6m worth of stock

Second quarter 2021 earnings released: EPS ₱0.22 (vs ₱0.013 in 2Q 2020)