Earnings Miss: Napier Port Holdings Limited Missed EPS By 9.6% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Investors in Napier Port Holdings Limited (NZSE:NPH) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.7% to close at NZ$3.55 following the release of its yearly results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of NZ$158m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 9.6% to hit NZ$0.15 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Napier Port Holdings after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Napier Port Holdings' twin analysts is for revenues of NZ$174.7m in 2026. This would reflect a meaningful 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 19% to NZ$0.18. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of NZ$168.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.17 in 2026. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Napier Port Holdings' future following the latest results, with a solid gain to the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

Check out our latest analysis for Napier Port Holdings

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Napier Port Holdings 12% to NZ$3.72on the back of these upgrades.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Napier Port Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Napier Port Holdings'historical trends, as the 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 9.2% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.4% per year. So although Napier Port Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Napier Port Holdings' earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2028, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Napier Port Holdings' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.