Stock Analysis

Investors in Seeka (NZSE:SEK) from five years ago are still down 34%, even after 13% gain this past week

NZSE:SEK
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This week we saw the Seeka Limited (NZSE:SEK) share price climb by 13%. But over the last half decade, the stock has not performed well. In fact, the share price is down 46%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.

While the last five years has been tough for Seeka shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.

View our latest analysis for Seeka

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over five years Seeka's earnings per share dropped significantly, falling to a loss, with the share price also lower. At present it's hard to make valid comparisons between EPS and the share price. However, we can say we'd expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
NZSE:SEK Earnings Per Share Growth November 21st 2023

This free interactive report on Seeka's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between Seeka's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Seeka's TSR of was a loss of 34% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Seeka shareholders are down 24% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 1.4%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 6% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Seeka better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Seeka (including 1 which is concerning) .

But note: Seeka may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on New Zealander exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Seeka is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.