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House of Control Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of HOC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

HOC (NOK11) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (NOK12.52)

Is HOC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HOC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HOC (NOK11) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NOK12.52)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HOC is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HOC?

Key metric: As HOC is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for HOC. This is calculated by dividing HOC's market cap by their current revenue.
What is HOC's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	2.9x
Sales	NOK 214.10m
Market Cap	NOK 628.10m

HOC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-9.2x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does HOC's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for HOC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	4.5x
RIVER River Tech	1.9x	n/a	NOK 318.6m
ORN Ørn Software Holding	2.5x	9.73%	NOK 585.3m
MNTR Mintra Holding	3.3x	1.41%	NOK 891.0m
ELABS Elliptic Laboratories	10.1x	36.33%	NOK 1.4b
HOC House of Control Group	2.9x	9.31%	NOK 628.1m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: HOC is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x) compared to the peer average (8.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does HOC's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the NO Software Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
QUEST Questback Group	0.3x	n/a	US$4.30m
SPOT Spotlio	0.5x	n/a	US$4.16m

No more companies available in this PS range

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: HOC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x) compared to the European Software industry average (2.7x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HOC's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HOC PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	2.9x
Fair PS Ratio	1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: HOC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/11/23 22:10
End of Day Share Price	2022/11/15 00:00
Earnings	2022/09/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

House of Control Group AS is covered by 1 analysts. 1 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Fridtjof Fredricsson	Pareto Securities