PostNL N.V. (AMS:PNL) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Shareholders might have noticed that PostNL N.V. (AMS:PNL) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 10.0% to €1.01 in the past week. Revenues were in line with expectations, at €756m, while statutory losses ballooned to €0.042 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for PostNL

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from PostNL's six analysts is for revenues of €3.31b in 2025. This would reflect a credible 3.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 227% to €0.12. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €3.31b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.13 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €1.12, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on PostNL, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €1.40 and the most bearish at €0.90 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that PostNL's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 2.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.1% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 2.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that PostNL is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for PostNL going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for PostNL that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.