InPost S.A. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Shareholders might have noticed that InPost S.A. (AMS:INPST) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.8% to €10.19 in the past week. Revenue of zł3.8b surpassed estimates by 3.9%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 53% below expectations at zł0.34 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from InPost's ten analysts is for revenues of zł17.7b in 2026. This would reflect a major 30% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 81% to zł3.25. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of zł17.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of zł3.37 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for InPost

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €17.34, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on InPost, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €21.53 and the most bearish at €12.12 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the InPost's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that InPost's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 24% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 30% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while InPost's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for InPost. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €17.34, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on InPost. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for InPost going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for InPost you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.