ArcelorMittal S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Investors in ArcelorMittal S.A. (AMS:MT) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.9% to close at €33.97 following the release of its third-quarter results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$16b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 12% to hit US$0.49 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ArcelorMittal's 16 analysts is for revenues of US$66.4b in 2026. This reflects a decent 8.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 38% to US$4.69. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$66.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.63 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for ArcelorMittal

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 5.7% to €36.74. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on ArcelorMittal, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €45.50 and the most bearish at €27.01 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ArcelorMittal's past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that ArcelorMittal's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 6.9% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.6% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.4% per year. So it looks like ArcelorMittal is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ArcelorMittal going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for ArcelorMittal you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.