Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Aperam S.A. (AMS:APAM) After Its First-Quarter Report

Shareholders might have noticed that Aperam S.A. (AMS:APAM) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.1% to €26.32 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €1.7b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at €2.79 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Aperam

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Aperam are now predicting revenues of €6.90b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a notable 8.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 52% to €1.10. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €6.94b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.68 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €29.99, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Aperam, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €42.00 and the most bearish at €24.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Aperam's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Aperam's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aperam going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Aperam that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.