Stock Analysis

Malayan Cement Berhad (KLSE:MCEMENT) Shares Could Be 45% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

KLSE:MCEMENT
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Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Malayan Cement Berhad (KLSE:MCEMENT) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Malayan Cement Berhad

The Model

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF (MYR, Millions) RM722.2m RM584.6m RM594.7m RM607.6m RM623.3m RM641.2m RM660.9m RM682.2m RM704.8m RM728.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 2.17% Est @ 2.58% Est @ 2.87% Est @ 3.08% Est @ 3.22% Est @ 3.32% Est @ 3.39%
Present Value (MYR, Millions) Discounted @ 14% RM634 RM450 RM402 RM361 RM325 RM293 RM265 RM240 RM218 RM198

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = RM3.4b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 14%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = RM729m× (1 + 3.6%) ÷ (14%– 3.6%) = RM7.3b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= RM7.3b÷ ( 1 + 14%)10= RM2.0b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is RM5.4b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of RM2.2, the company appears quite undervalued at a 45% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
KLSE:MCEMENT Discounted Cash Flow January 19th 2023

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Malayan Cement Berhad as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 14%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.350. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Malayan Cement Berhad

Strength
  • No major strengths identified for MCEMENT.
Weakness
  • Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Malaysian market.
  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the Malaysian market.

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Malayan Cement Berhad, we've compiled three essential elements you should assess:

  1. Risks: Be aware that Malayan Cement Berhad is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
  2. Future Earnings: How does MCEMENT's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Malaysian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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Find out whether Malayan Cement Berhad is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.