NRG Energy Valuation
Is NRG * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of NRG * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: NRG * (MX$1805.15) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$5854.93)
Significantly Below Fair Value: NRG * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NRG *?
Key metric: As NRG * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is NRG *'s PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 20.8x |
| Earnings | US$897.00m |
| Market Cap | US$18.67b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 13.3x |
| PEG Ratio | 2x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does NRG *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 23.9x | ||
H Hydro One | 23.4x | 6.8% | CA$26.8b |
5110 Saudi Electricity | 19.8x | 31.0% | ر.س69.8b |
EBK EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg | 29.2x | n/a | €17.5b |
TENAGA Tenaga Nasional Berhad | 23.2x | 13.1% | RM 83.5b |
NRG * NRG Energy | 20.8x | 10.3% | Mex$18.7b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NRG * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the peer average (23.8x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does NRG *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Electric Utilities Industry?
| 3 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NRG * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the South American Electric Utilities industry average (9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is NRG *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 20.8x |
| Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NRG *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | n/a | Mex$1,908.36 0% | 25.6% | Mex$2,826.84 | Mex$868.24 | n/a | 10 |
| Nov ’25 | Mex$1,805.15 | Mex$1,833.25 +1.6% | 23.2% | Mex$2,635.96 | Mex$871.89 | n/a | 10 |
| Oct ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,684.04 0% | 22.1% | Mex$2,364.29 | Mex$847.20 | n/a | 10 |
| Sep ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,620.98 0% | 21.1% | Mex$2,098.45 | Mex$820.30 | n/a | 9 |
| Aug ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,535.90 0% | 22.3% | Mex$2,020.01 | Mex$752.91 | n/a | 9 |
| Jul ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,479.98 0% | 22.3% | Mex$1,949.05 | Mex$726.46 | n/a | 9 |
| Jun ’25 | Mex$1,435.00 | Mex$1,375.64 -4.1% | 22.6% | Mex$1,865.28 | Mex$695.24 | n/a | 8 |
| May ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,138.30 0% | 22.6% | Mex$1,497.57 | Mex$697.73 | n/a | 9 |
| Apr ’25 | n/a | Mex$993.48 0% | 18.9% | Mex$1,416.02 | Mex$683.02 | n/a | 11 |
| Mar ’25 | Mex$900.00 | Mex$945.31 +5.0% | 15.1% | Mex$1,123.23 | Mex$646.71 | n/a | 11 |
| Feb ’25 | n/a | Mex$920.33 0% | 13.6% | Mex$1,115.32 | Mex$652.03 | n/a | 11 |
| Jan ’25 | n/a | Mex$822.74 0% | 10.8% | Mex$955.88 | Mex$648.63 | n/a | 10 |
| Dec ’24 | n/a | Mex$793.09 0% | 10.9% | Mex$890.08 | Mex$650.45 | n/a | 9 |
| Nov ’24 | n/a | Mex$767.91 0% | 12.4% | Mex$890.62 | Mex$587.81 | Mex$1,805.15 | 9 |
| Oct ’24 | n/a | Mex$702.60 0% | 12.9% | Mex$820.33 | Mex$563.98 | n/a | 9 |
| Sep ’24 | n/a | Mex$698.13 0% | 12.2% | Mex$787.54 | Mex$564.97 | n/a | 9 |
| Aug ’24 | n/a | Mex$695.59 0% | 14.2% | Mex$875.09 | Mex$555.35 | n/a | 9 |
| Jul ’24 | n/a | Mex$694.44 0% | 13.5% | Mex$887.98 | Mex$563.52 | n/a | 9 |
| Jun ’24 | n/a | Mex$699.94 0% | 16.0% | Mex$912.78 | Mex$526.60 | Mex$1,435.00 | 8 |
| May ’24 | n/a | Mex$711.80 0% | 15.5% | Mex$938.37 | Mex$541.37 | n/a | 9 |
| Apr ’24 | n/a | Mex$746.65 0% | 15.2% | Mex$978.81 | Mex$564.70 | n/a | 9 |
| Mar ’24 | n/a | Mex$724.40 0% | 15.8% | Mex$960.39 | Mex$554.07 | Mex$900.00 | 9 |
| Feb ’24 | n/a | Mex$722.15 0% | 15.9% | Mex$976.78 | Mex$563.53 | n/a | 9 |
| Jan ’24 | n/a | Mex$783.41 0% | 15.7% | Mex$1,029.88 | Mex$594.16 | n/a | 9 |
| Dec ’23 | n/a | Mex$871.43 0% | 10.5% | Mex$1,018.30 | Mex$724.56 | n/a | 10 |
| Nov ’23 | n/a | Mex$869.06 0% | 9.8% | Mex$1,029.41 | Mex$732.47 | n/a | 10 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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