We Like Axtel. de's (BMV:AXTELCPO) Earnings For More Than Just Statutory Profit

The market seemed underwhelmed by last week's earnings announcement from Axtel, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:AXTELCPO) despite the healthy numbers. Our analysis suggests that shareholders might be missing some positive underlying factors in the earnings report.

See our latest analysis for Axtel. de

Zooming In On Axtel. de's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to March 2023, Axtel. de had an accrual ratio of -0.13. That indicates that its free cash flow was a fair bit more than its statutory profit. In fact, it had free cash flow of Mex$1.8b in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of Mex$71.3m. Axtel. de's free cash flow actually declined over the last year, which is disappointing, like non-biodegradable balloons.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Axtel. de's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, Axtel. de has perfectly satisfactory free cash flow relative to profit. Because of this, we think Axtel. de's earnings potential is at least as good as it seems, and maybe even better! And it's also positive that the company showed enough improvement to book a profit this year, after losing money last year. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. If you'd like to know more about Axtel. de as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Axtel. de you should know about.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Axtel. de's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.