Super Micro Computer Valuation
Is SMCI * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of SMCI * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: SMCI * (MX$373.67) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$5322.92)
Significantly Below Fair Value: SMCI * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SMCI *?
Key metric: As SMCI * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is SMCI *'s PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 9x |
| Earnings | US$1.21b |
| Market Cap | US$10.55b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.7x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 8.5x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.4x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does SMCI *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 51.4x | ||
688036 Shenzhen Transsion Holdings | 19.4x | 20.0% | CN¥107.9b |
603019 Dawning Information Industry | 57.2x | 22.0% | CN¥106.1b |
PSTG Pure Storage | 115.7x | 36.1% | US$16.3b |
2357 ASUSTeK Computer | 13.4x | 4.4% | NT$450.9b |
SMCI * Super Micro Computer | 9x | 24.6% | Mex$10.5b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SMCI * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the peer average (51.4x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does SMCI *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Tech Industry?
| 5 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SMCI * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9x) compared to the Global Tech industry average (22.3x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is SMCI *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 9x |
| Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate SMCI *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | Mex$373.67 | Mex$771.72 +106.5% | 51.5% | Mex$1,843.65 | Mex$455.96 | n/a | 11 |
| Nov ’25 | Mex$528.06 | Mex$1,270.26 +140.6% | 38.7% | Mex$2,027.66 | Mex$651.08 | n/a | 11 |
| Oct ’25 | Mex$818.49 | Mex$1,469.29 +79.5% | 42.5% | Mex$2,549.72 | Mex$637.43 | n/a | 15 |
| Sep ’25 | Mex$861.04 | Mex$1,740.70 +102.2% | 39.5% | Mex$2,974.91 | Mex$644.56 | n/a | 13 |
| Aug ’25 | Mex$1,247.20 | Mex$1,897.96 +52.2% | 27.5% | Mex$2,754.56 | Mex$596.82 | n/a | 14 |
| Jul ’25 | Mex$1,493.00 | Mex$1,732.92 +16.1% | 28.1% | Mex$2,517.65 | Mex$478.35 | n/a | 14 |
| Jun ’25 | Mex$1,312.00 | Mex$1,732.92 +32.1% | 28.1% | Mex$2,517.65 | Mex$478.35 | n/a | 14 |
| May ’25 | Mex$1,470.00 | Mex$1,646.59 +12.0% | 32.7% | Mex$2,552.67 | Mex$485.01 | n/a | 15 |
| Apr ’25 | Mex$1,725.00 | Mex$1,534.14 -11.1% | 35.6% | Mex$2,252.72 | Mex$417.17 | n/a | 15 |
| Mar ’25 | Mex$1,540.00 | Mex$1,274.31 -17.3% | 34.2% | Mex$2,222.23 | Mex$427.35 | n/a | 14 |
| Feb ’25 | Mex$995.00 | Mex$975.03 -2.0% | 22.3% | Mex$1,201.11 | Mex$428.97 | n/a | 11 |
| Jan ’25 | n/a | Mex$629.51 0% | 26.0% | Mex$860.45 | Mex$275.34 | n/a | 10 |
| Dec ’24 | n/a | Mex$657.62 0% | 21.2% | Mex$876.36 | Mex$420.65 | n/a | 10 |
| Nov ’24 | n/a | Mex$655.16 0% | 20.4% | Mex$902.68 | Mex$433.28 | Mex$528.06 | 10 |
| Oct ’24 | n/a | Mex$621.47 0% | 18.6% | Mex$853.67 | Mex$426.84 | Mex$818.49 | 9 |
| Sep ’24 | Mex$446.31 | Mex$628.93 +40.9% | 19.1% | Mex$853.08 | Mex$426.54 | Mex$861.04 | 8 |
| Aug ’24 | n/a | Mex$488.50 0% | 43.7% | Mex$681.06 | Mex$110.40 | Mex$1,247.20 | 8 |
| Jul ’24 | n/a | Mex$393.98 0% | 52.7% | Mex$683.06 | Mex$111.00 | Mex$1,493.00 | 7 |
| Jun ’24 | n/a | Mex$323.65 0% | 60.5% | Mex$712.62 | Mex$115.80 | Mex$1,312.00 | 6 |
| May ’24 | n/a | Mex$189.93 0% | 37.9% | Mex$315.95 | Mex$117.35 | Mex$1,470.00 | 5 |
| Apr ’24 | n/a | Mex$187.70 0% | 39.3% | Mex$325.87 | Mex$121.04 | Mex$1,725.00 | 5 |
| Mar ’24 | n/a | Mex$187.70 0% | 39.3% | Mex$325.87 | Mex$121.04 | Mex$1,540.00 | 5 |
| Feb ’24 | n/a | Mex$187.70 0% | 39.3% | Mex$325.87 | Mex$121.04 | Mex$995.00 | 5 |
| Jan ’24 | n/a | Mex$192.10 0% | 37.8% | Mex$324.76 | Mex$124.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Dec ’23 | n/a | Mex$192.10 0% | 37.8% | Mex$324.76 | Mex$124.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Nov ’23 | n/a | Mex$171.33 0% | 35.8% | Mex$272.93 | Mex$109.57 | n/a | 5 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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